The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany Declines

BRUSSELS, Nov. 22, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany declined 1.4 percent in September to 105.1 (2004 = 100), following a 2.3 percent decline in August, and a 0.2 percent decline in July.

At the same time, The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Germany, a measure of current economic activity, declined 0.1 percent in September to 106.4 (2004 = 100), following a 0.2 percent decline in August, and a 0.4 percent increase in July.

The Conference Board LEI for Germany decreased for a fourth consecutive month in September, amid widespread weaknesses among its components. As a result, the six-month change in the leading index fell to its lowest rate since May 2009. Meanwhile, The Conference Board CEI for Germany has fallen for the past two months after trending upwards for the past two years. Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite indexes suggests that the risk of an economic contraction in the near term has risen substantially.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany
The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading and coincident economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading or coincident indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Germany include:

New Orders, Investment Goods
Yield Spread cumulated, 10 year minus 3 month
Change in Inventories
Gross Enterprise and Property Income
Stock Prices
New Orders, Residential Construction
Consumer Confidence Index

About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.

For more information including full press release and technical notes:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=4

For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm

For further information:
The Conference Board Europe, Brussels: + 32 2 675 5405 (main line)
Rosa Correia  + 32 2 679 5059 / [email protected]
Derek Servais   + 32 2 679 5054 / [email protected]

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SOURCE The Conference Board

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