The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany Declined

News provided by

Dec 15, 2014, 04:00 ET

BRUSSELS, Dec. 15, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany declined 0.5 percent in October to 107.0 (2004 = 100), following a 0.1 percent increase in September, and a 1.3 percent decline in August.

At the same time, The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Germany, a measure of current economic activity, increased 0.2 percent in October to 108.6 (2004 = 100), following a 0.1 percent increase in September, and a 0.3 percent decline in August.

The LEI has been on a downward trend since March, and as a result, its six-month growth rate has fallen into negative territory. However, in the past two months the strengths among the leading indicators have become more widespread than the weaknesses. Meanwhile, the CEI has only improved marginally over the past six months. Taken together, the behavior of the composite indexes suggests that economic activity should continue at its current moderate pace into early 2015, but downside risks still exist.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for Germany
The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading and coincident economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading or coincident indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for Germany include:

New Orders, Investment Goods
Yield Spread cumulated, 10 year minus 3 month
Change in Inventories
Gross Enterprise and Property Income
Stock Prices
New Orders, Residential Construction
Consumer Confidence Index

About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.

Follow The Conference Board
Twitter | Facebook | LinkedIn

For more information including full press release and technical notes:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=4

For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm


Summary Table of Composite Indexes
	2014						6-month
	Aug		Sep		Oct		Apr to Oct

Leading Economic Index (LEI)	107.4	r	107.5	p	107.0	p
Percent Change	-1.3		0.1	p	-0.5	p	-2.4	p
Diffusion	28.6		64.3		57.1		14.3

Coincident Economic Index (CEI)	108.3		108.4	r	108.6
Percent Change	-0.3		0.1	r	0.2		0.2
Diffusion	37.5		75.0		75.0		50.0

n.a. Not available p Preliminary r Revised Indexes equal 100 in 2004 Source: The Conference Board All Rights Reserved