The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for France Decreases
BRUSSELS, Jan. 20, 2012 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for France decreased 0.2 percent in November to 112.5 (2004 = 100), following a 0.5 percent increase in October, and a 0.5 percent decline in September.
At the same time, The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for France, a measure of current economic activity, increased 0.1 in November to 104.7 (2004 = 100), following a 0.1 percent increase in October, and a 0.2 percent decrease in September.
The Conference Board LEI for France declined in November, and its six-month growth rate remains slightly negative. At the same time, The Conference Board CEI for France has remained flat since July 2011, and its six-month growth rate has slowed since the beginning of the year. Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite indexes suggests that although current economic activity is in positive territory, risks to economic growth in the near term remain high.
This month's release incorporates annual benchmark revisions to the composite economic indexes. These regular benchmark revisions bring the indexes up to date with revisions in the source data. The revisions do not change the cyclical properties of the indexes. The indexes are updated throughout the year, but only for the previous six months. Data revisions that fall outside of the moving six-month window are incorporated when the benchmark revision is made and the entire histories of the indexes are recomputed. As a result, the revised indexes and their month-over-month changes will no longer be directly comparable to those issued prior to the benchmark revision.
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About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for France
The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading and coincident economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading or coincident indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.
The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for France include:
Yield Spread, 10 year minus Day-Day Loan
Stock Price SBF 250 Index
Building Permits, residential
New Unemployment Claims
Industrial New Orders
Production Expectations
Ratio Deflator of Manufacturing Value Added to Unit Labor Cost
For more information including full press release and technical notes:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=3
For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm
About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is an independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.conference-board.org.
Summary Table of Composite Indexes |
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2011 |
6-month |
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Sep |
Oct |
Nov |
May to Nov |
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Leading Economic Index (LEI) |
112.1 |
p |
112.7 |
p |
112.5 |
p |
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Percent Change |
-0.5 |
p |
0.5 |
p |
-0.2 |
p |
-0.3 |
p |
Diffusion |
21.4 |
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78.6 |
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50.0 |
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35.7 |
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Coincident Economic Index (CEI) |
104.5 |
p |
104.6 |
p |
104.7 |
p |
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Percent Change |
-0.2 |
p |
0.1 |
p |
0.1 |
p |
0.1 |
p |
Diffusion |
50.0 |
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87.5 |
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87.5 |
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62.5 |
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n.a. Not available p Preliminary r Revised |
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Indexes equal 100 in 2004 |
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Source: The Conference Board All Rights Reserved |
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SOURCE The Conference Board
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