The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for France Declines

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Nov 21, 2011, 04:00 ET

BRUSSELS, Nov. 21, 2011 /PRNewswire/ --The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for France declined 0.6 percent in September to 112.8 (2004 = 100), following a 0.5 percent decline in August, and a 0.3 percent decline in July.

At the same time, The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for France, a measure of current economic activity, was unchanged in September at 105.6 (2004 = 100), following a 0.1 percent increase in August, and a 0.1 percent increase in July.

The Conference Board LEI for France declined again in September, amid widespread weakness among its components. In addition, the LEI's six-month growth rate became negative for the first time since May 2009. At the same time, The Conference Board CEI for France has been on a slowly rising trend since reaching its most recent trough in August 2009, but its six-month growth rate has also moderated since the beginning of this year. Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite indexes suggests that although current economic activity remains in positive territory, risks to economic growth are increasing in the near term.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for France

The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading and coincident economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading or coincident indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for France include:

Yield Spread, 10 year minus Day-Day Loan
Stock Price SBF 250 Index
Building Permits, residential
New Unemployment Claims
Industrial New Orders
Production Expectations
Ratio Deflator of Manufacturing Value Added to Unit Labor Cost

For more information including full press release and technical notes:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=3

For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is an independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.conference-board.org.

Summary Table of Composite Indexes

	2011			6-month
	Jul	Aug	Sep	Mar to Sep

Leading Economic Index (LEI)	114.1 p	113.5 p	112.8 p
Percent Change	-0.3 p	-0.5 p	-0.6 p	-1.1 p
Diffusion	28.6	21.4	14.3	14.3

Coincident Economic Index (CEI)	105.5 p	105.6 p	105.6 p
Percent Change	0.1 p	0.1 p	0.0 p	0.5 p
Diffusion	75.0	62.5	62.5	50.0

n.a. Not available p Preliminary r Revised
Indexes equal 100 in 2004
Source: The Conference Board All Rights Reserved