The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Australia Increases

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Mar 21, 2013, 07:01 ET

NEW YORK, March 21, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Australia increased 0.2 percent in January to 121.9 (2004 = 100), following a 0.2 percent decrease in December, and a 0.2 percent decrease in November.

At the same time, The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Australia, a measure of current economic activity, increased 0.1 percent in January to 121.5 (2004 = 100), following a 0.1 percent decrease in December, and a 0.1 percent increase in November.

The LEI for Australia increased slightly in January, but it has declined in four of the last six months. As a result, the six-month change in the LEI remains negative. Meanwhile, the CEI remained on an essentially flat trend through January, and its rate of growth has continued to slow. Taken together, despite small monthly gains in both the LEI and CEI, the recent behavior of the composite indexes and their components suggests that the pace of economic growth could slow in the near term.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for Australia
The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading and coincident economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading or coincident indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for Australia include:

Yield Spread, 10 year minus Policy Rate
Share Prices, All Ordinaries
Money Supply, M3
Rural Goods Exports
Sales to Inventory Ratio
Gross Operating Surplus, Private Non-Financial Corporations
Building Approvals

For more information including full press release and technical notes:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=7

For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm

About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is an independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.conference-board.org.

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Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes

	2012				2013		6-month
	Nov		Dec		Jan		Jul to Jan

Leading Economic Index	121.9		121.7	p	121.9	p
Percent Change	-0.2		-0.2	p	0.2	p	-1.0
Diffusion	28.6		35.7		64.3		28.6

Coincident Economic Index	121.5	r	121.4	p	121.5	p
Percent Change	0.1		-0.1	p	0.1	p	0.0
Diffusion	50.0		50.0		75.0		50.0

n.a. Not available p Preliminary r Revised
Indexes equal 100 in 2004
Source: The Conference Board All Rights Reserved