The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Australia Increases

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Jan 24, 2011, 06:00 ET

NEW YORK, Jan. 24, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Australia increased 0.3 percent in November to 120.2 (2004 = 100), following a 0.6 percent increase in October, and a 0.1 percent decline in September.

At the same time, The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Australia, a measure of current economic activity, increased 0.2 percent in November to 118.4 (2004 = 100), following a 0.1 percent increase in October, and a 0.3 percent increase in September.

The Conference Board LEI for Australia resumed its upward trend, after pausing in the third quarter of last year. However, its six-month growth rate has continued to moderate in recent months. At the same time, The Conference Board CEI for Australia continues to increase at a steady pace. Taken together, the current behavior of the composite indexes suggests that economic growth will likely be moderate in the near term.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Australia

The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading and coincident economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading or coincident indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Australia include:

Yield Spread, 10 year minus Policy Rate
Share Prices, All Ordinaries
Money Supply, M3
Rural Goods Exports
Sales to Inventory Ratio
Gross Operating Surplus, Private Non-Financial Corporations
Building Approvals

For more information including full press release and technical notes: http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=7

For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators: http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm

This month's release incorporates annual benchmark revisions to the composite economic indexes, which bring them up-to-date with revisions in the source data. These revisions do not change the cyclical properties of the indexes. The indexes are updated throughout the year, but only for the previous six months. Data revisions that fall outside of the moving six-month window are not incorporated until the benchmark revision is made and the entire histories of the indexes are recomputed. As a result, the revised indexes, in levels and month-on-month changes, will not be directly comparable to those issued prior to the benchmark revision.

For more information, please visit our website at http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm or contact us at [email protected].

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is an independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.conference-board.org.

Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes

		2010		6-month
	Sep	Oct	Nov	May to Nov

Leading Economic Index	119.1 p	119.8 p	120.2 p
Percent Change	-0.1 p	0.6 p	0.3 p	1.6
Diffusion	57.1	71.4	57.1	57.1
Coincident Economic Index	118.1 p	118.2 p	118.4 p
Percent Change	0.3 p	0.1 p	0.2 p	1.5
Diffusion	75.0	62.5	62.5	75.0

n.a. Not available p Preliminary r Revised
Indexes equal 100 in 2004
Source: The Conference Board All Rights Reserved