The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for India Increased in November

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Dec 18, 2014, 11:30 ET

MUMBAI, Dec. 18, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for India increased 1.2 percent in November to 184.5 (2004 = 100), following a 1.0 percent decline in October and a 1.7 percent increase in September. Seven of the eight components contributed positively to the index in November.

"Despite the broad-based strength in November's Leading Economic Index for India, a moderation in its six-month growth suggests that the current rate of economic expansion is unlikely to accelerate considerably in early 2015," said Jing Sima, Senior Economist at The Conference Board. "A sharp decline in industrial production reflects India's persistently weak manufacturing sector. In addition, economic momentum post-election is still facing restrained fiscal conditions and vulnerable domestic demand."

Bart van Ark, Chief Economist at The Conference Board, added: "Medium-term growth prospects in India remain fairly favorable, but are likely to fall short of popular expectations in the near term. Drastic reforms in labor markets, taxes and foreign domestic investment are still on the horizon. For 2015, the economy will likely grow at 5.5 percent, slightly faster than in 2014."

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for India, which measures current economic activity, increased 4.4 percent in November to 203.1 (2004 = 100), following a 5.7 percent decline in October and a 2.4 percent increase in September. Three of the four components contributed positively to the index in November.

The Conference Board LEI for India aggregates eight economic indicators that measure economic activity in India. Each of the LEI components has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called "noise" to show underlying trends more clearly.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for India

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for India was launched in September 2013. Plotted back to April 1990, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the economic cycles of India. The Conference Board also produces LEIs for Australia, Brazil, China, the Euro Area, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

The eight components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for India include:

Interest Rate Spread (10-Year Government Bond minus 91-Day Treasury Bill) (RBI)
Stock Prices: SENSEX Average (Bombay Stock Exchange Limited)
Real effective exchange rate index, 36 countries (RBI)
Real Money Supply: M3 Bank Credit to Commercial Sector (RBI)
Merchandise Exports, f.o.b. (Ministry of Commerce and Industry)
Cargo Handled: Domestic and International (Airport Authority of India)
IP: Capital Goods (Central Statistical Organization)
PMI: Services Business Activity (HSBC/Markit)

For more information including full press release and technical notes:
https://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=13

To view The Conference Board calendar of 2015 indicator releases:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/

About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. For additional information about The Conference Board and how it can meet your needs, visit our website at www.conference-board.org.

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NOTE:
Next month's release will incorporate annual benchmark revisions to the composite economic indexes, which bring them up-to-date with revisions in the source data. Also, with this benchmark revision, the base year of the composite indexes will be changed to 2010 = 100 from 2004 = 100. These revisions do not change the cyclical properties of the indexes. The indexes are updated throughout the year, but only for the previous six months. Data revisions that fall outside of the moving six-month window are not incorporated until the benchmark revision is made and the entire histories of the indexes are recomputed. As a result, the revised indexes, in levels and month-on-month changes, will not be directly comparable to those issued prior to the benchmark revision. In addition, one of the components of The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for India, exports of agricultural products, has been discontinued. Beginning next month, it will no longer be included in the India CEI. We are currently evaluating several other components for inclusion in the India CEI. For more information, please visit our website at http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm or contact us at [email protected].


Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes

	2014						6-month
	Sep		Oct		Nov		May to Nov

Leading Economic Index	184.2		182.4	r	184.5	p
Percent Change	1.7	r	-1.0	r	1.2	p	2.0
Diffusion	93.8		25.0		87.5		87.5

Coincident Economic Index	206.2	p	194.5	p	203.1	p
Percent Change	2.4	p	-5.7	p	4.4	p	-0.8
Diffusion	62.5		12.5		87.5		75.0

n.a. Not available p Preliminary r Revised Indexes equal 100 in 2004 Source: The Conference Board All Rights Reserved