The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for India Increased in July

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Aug 21, 2015, 12:30 ET

MUMBAI, India, Aug. 21, 2015 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for India increased 1.5 percent in July to 103.1 (2010 = 100), following a 0.3 percent decline in June and a 1.3 percent decline in May. All eight LEI components advanced in July.

"July's large increase in the Leading Economic Index for India, after two monthly decreases, adds some degree of optimism to the economic outlook," said Jing Sima, Senior Economist at The Conference Board. "However, despite July's rebound in several leading indicators, the LEI has been moving sideways, suggesting that India's economic growth is unlikely to gain momentum this year."

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for India, which measures current economic activity, increased 1.7 percent in July to 111.0 (2010 = 100), following a 0.6 percent increase in June and a 1.0 percent decline in May. All three components contributed positively to the index in July.

The Conference Board LEI for India aggregates eight economic indicators that measure economic activity in India. Each of the LEI components has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called "noise" to show underlying trends more clearly.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for India

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for India was launched in September 2013. Plotted back to April 1990, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the economic cycles of India. The Conference Board also produces LEIs for Australia, Brazil, China, the Euro Area, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

The eight components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for India include:

Interest Rate Spread (10-Year Government Bond minus 91-Day Treasury Bill) (RBI)
Stock Prices: SENSEX Average (Bombay Stock Exchange Limited)
Real effective exchange rate index, 36 countries (RBI)
Real Money Supply: M3 Bank Credit to Commercial Sector (RBI)
Merchandise Exports, f.o.b. (Ministry of Commerce and Industry)
Cargo Handled: Domestic and International (Airport Authority of India)
IP: Capital Goods (Central Statistical Organization)
PMI: Services Business Activity (HSBC/Markit)

For more information including full press release and technical notes:
https://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=13

To view The Conference Board calendar of 2015 indicator releases:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/

About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. For additional information about The Conference Board and how it can meet your needs, visit our website at www.conference-board.org.

Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes

			2015				6-month
	May		Jun		Jul		Jan to Jul

Leading Economic Index	101.9		101.6	r	103.1	p
Percent Change	-1.3		-0.3	r	1.5	p	0.0
Diffusion	25.0		31.3		100.0		37.5

Coincident Economic Index	108.5		109.1	r	111.0	p
Percent Change	-1.0	r	0.6	r	1.7	p	3.9
Diffusion	33.3		33.3		100.0		100.0

n.a. Not available p Preliminary r Revised
Indexes equal 100 in 2010
Source: The Conference Board All Rights Reserved