The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for India Increased in January

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Feb 18, 2015, 11:30 ET

MUMBAI, India, Feb. 19, 2015 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for India increased 0.5 percent in January to 103.2 (2010 = 100), following a 1.3 percent decline in December and a 1.7 percent increase in November. Six of the eight components contributed positively to the index in January.

"Despite the small gain in the Leading Economic Index for India in January, the slower rate of six-month change in both the LEI and CEI for India suggests that the economy is off to a slow start in the new financial year," said Jing Sima, Senior Economist at The Conference Board. "While low oil prices, favorable terms of trade, and the recent monetary easing will provide some lift to India's economy, persistent weaknesses in both domestic and external demand suggest growth is unlikely to substantially improve this year."

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for India, which measures current economic activity, decreased 2.1 percent in January to 105.3 (2010 = 100), following a 1.6 percent decline in December and a 6.9 percent increase in November. One of the three components contributed positively to the index in January.

The Conference Board LEI for India aggregates eight economic indicators that measure economic activity in India. Each of the LEI components has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called "noise" to show underlying trends more clearly.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for India

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for India was launched in September 2013. Plotted back to April 1990, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the economic cycles of India. The Conference Board also produces LEIs for Australia, Brazil, China, the Euro Area, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

The eight components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for India include:

Interest Rate Spread (10-Year Government Bond minus 91-Day Treasury Bill) (RBI)
Stock Prices: SENSEX Average (Bombay Stock Exchange Limited)
Real effective exchange rate index, 36 countries (RBI)
Real Money Supply: M3 Bank Credit to Commercial Sector (RBI)
Merchandise Exports, f.o.b. (Ministry of Commerce and Industry)
Cargo Handled: Domestic and International (Airport Authority of India)
IP: Capital Goods (Central Statistical Organization)
PMI: Services Business Activity (HSBC/Markit)

For more information including full press release and technical notes:
https://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=13

To view The Conference Board calendar of 2015 indicator releases:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/

About The Conference Board

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Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes

	2014				2015		6-month
	Nov		Dec		Jan		Jul to Jan

Leading Economic Index	104.0		102.7	r	103.2	p
Percent Change	1.7		-1.3	r	0.5	p	0.0
Diffusion	75.0		25.0		75.0		62.5

Coincident Economic Index	109.4	r	107.6	r	105.3	p
Percent Change	6.9	r	-1.6	r	-2.1	p	-1.8
Diffusion	100.0		33.3		33.3		33.3

n.a. Not available p Preliminary r Revised
Indexes equal 100 in 2010
Source: The Conference Board All Rights Reserved

The next release is scheduled for Friday, March 20, 2015 at 10:00 A.M. (Mumbai time)
In New York – Friday, March 20, 2015 at 12:30 A.M. (ET)

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