The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for India Fell in March

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Apr 23, 2015, 12:30 ET

MUMBAI, India, April 23, 2015 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for India declined 0.4 percent in March to 102.7 (2010 = 100), following no change in February and a 0.2 percent increase in January. Three of the eight components contributed positively to the index in March.

"March's decline in the Leading Economic Index for India more than offset the increases earlier this year, suggesting that the pace of India's economic expansion is unlikely to accelerate in the coming months," said Jing Sima, Senior Economist at The Conference Board. "However, while the short-term outlook does not suggest a rapid improvement, a more accommodative business environment coupled with ongoing structural reform initiatives could bring stronger economic growth in the medium-term."

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for India, which measures current economic activity, increased 0.8 percent in March to 107.7 (2010 = 100), following no change in February and a 1.7 percent decline in January. Two of the three components contributed positively to the index in March.

The Conference Board LEI for India aggregates eight economic indicators that measure economic activity in India. Each of the LEI components has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called "noise" to show underlying trends more clearly.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for India

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for India was launched in September 2013. Plotted back to April 1990, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the economic cycles of India. The Conference Board also produces LEIs for Australia, Brazil, China, the Euro Area, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

The eight components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for India include:

Interest Rate Spread (10-Year Government Bond minus 91-Day Treasury Bill) (RBI)
Stock Prices: SENSEX Average (Bombay Stock Exchange Limited)
Real effective exchange rate index, 36 countries (RBI)
Real Money Supply: M3 Bank Credit to Commercial Sector (RBI)
Merchandise Exports, f.o.b. (Ministry of Commerce and Industry)
Cargo Handled: Domestic and International (Airport Authority of India)
IP: Capital Goods (Central Statistical Organization)
PMI: Services Business Activity (HSBC/Markit)

For more information including full press release and technical notes:
https://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=13

To view The Conference Board calendar of 2015 indicator releases:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. For additional information about The Conference Board and how it can meet your needs, visit our website at www.conference-board.org.

			2015				6-month
	Jan		Feb		Mar		Sep to Mar

Leading Economic Index	103.1		103.1	r	102.7	p
Percent Change	0.2		0.0	r	-0.4	p	-0.9
Diffusion	75.0		50.0		37.5		62.5

Coincident Economic Index	106.8	r	106.8	r	107.7	p
Percent Change	-1.7		0.0		0.8	p	-0.5
Diffusion	33.3		66.7		66.7		33.3

n.a. Not available p Preliminary r Revised
Indexes equal 100 in 2010
Source: The Conference Board All Rights Reserved