The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for China Increased Slightly in March

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Apr 21, 2015, 10:00 ET

BEIJING, April 21, 2015 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for China increased 0.2 percent in March to 317.8 (2004 = 100), following a 1.4 percent increase in February and a 0.6 percent increase in January. Three of the six components contributed positively to the index in March.

Said Andrew Polk, resident economist at The Conference Board China Center in Beijing, "Exports, consumer confidence, and real estate all weighed negatively on the Leading Economic Index for China in March, resulting in its weakest monthly growth in more than a year. In addition, the LEI's six-month growth rate has been slowing over the past year, suggesting the economy will continue losing momentum through the summer."

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for China, which measures current economic activity, increased 1.7 percent in March to 274.2 (2004 = 100), following a 0.6 percent increase in February and a 0.8 percent decline in January. Four of the five components contributed positively to the index in March.

The Conference Board LEI for China aggregates six economic indicators that measure economic activity in China. Each of the LEI components has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called "noise" to show underlying trends more clearly.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for China

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for China was launched in May 2010. Plotted back to 1986, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the economic cycles of China. The Conference Board also produces LEIs for Australia, Brazil, the Euro Area, France, Germany, India, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for China include:

Total Loans Issued by Financial Institutions (source: People's Bank of China)
5000 Industry Enterprises Diffusion Index: Raw Materials Supply Index (source: People's Bank of China)
NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: PMI Supplier Deliveries (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
Consumer Expectations Index (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
Total Floor Space Started (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: Export Orders (source: National Bureau of Statistics)

For more information including full press release and technical notes:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=11

To view The Conference Board calendar of 2015 indicator releases:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. For additional information about The Conference Board and how it can meet your needs, visit our website at www.conference-board.org.

Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes
			2015				6-month
	Jan		Feb		Mar		Sep to Mar

Leading Economic index (LEI)	312.8	p	317.1	p	317.8	p
Percent Change	0.6	p	1.4	p	0.2	p	4.8
Diffusion	33.3		66.7		41.7		50.0

Coincident Economic Index (CEI)	268.2	p	269.7	p	274.2	p
Percent Change	-0.8	p	0.6	p	1.7	p	3.2
Diffusion	40.0		60.0		80.0		80.0

n.a. Not available p Preliminary r Revised
Indexes equal 100 in 2004
Source: The Conference Board All Rights Reserved