The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for China Increased Sharply in November

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Dec 17, 2013, 09:00 ET

BEIJING, Dec. 17, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for China increased 1.4 percent in November. The index stands at 278.0 (2004 = 100), following a 0.7 percent increase in October and a 1.0 percent increase in September. Three of the six components contributed positively to the index in November.

Says Andrew Polk, resident economist at The Conference Board China Center in Beijing: "Growth in the China LEI accelerated in November, driven entirely by real estate and new lending. Despite the uptick, the economy does not appear to be gaining any underlying momentum, as manufacturing, exports and consumer expectations all continue to struggle. Furthermore, both real estate and credit markets are likely to be hit by tighter policy in the coming months, thus the outlook for the Chinese economy remains skewed toward slower growth."

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for China, which measures current economic activity, increased 0.8 percent in November to 252.7 (2004 = 100), following a 0.8 percent increase in October and a 0.2 percent increase in September. All five components contributed positively to the index in November.

The Conference Board LEI for China aggregates six economic indicators that measure economic activity in China. Each of the LEI components has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called "noise" to show underlying trends more clearly.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for China

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for China was launched in May 2010. Plotted back to 1986, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the economic cycles of China. The Conference Board also produces LEIs for Australia, the Euro Area, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for China include:

Total Loans Issued by Financial Institutions (source: People's Bank of China)
5000 Industry Enterprises Diffusion Index: Raw Materials Supply Index (source: People's Bank of China)
NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: PMI Supplier Deliveries (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
Consumer Expectations Index (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
Total Floor Space Started (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: Export Orders (source: National Bureau of Statistics)

For more information including full press release and technical notes:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=11

About The Conference Board
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Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes

	Sep		2013 Oct		Nov		6-month May Nov

Leading Economic index (LEI)	272.3	p	274.1	p	278.0	p
Percent Change	1.0	p	0.7	p	1.4	p	6.3
Diffusion	58.3		75.0		58.3		91.7

Coincident Economic Index (CEI)	248.7	p	250.6	p	252.7	p
Percent Change	0.2	p	0.8	p	0.8	p	5.2
Diffusion	80.0		80.0		100.0		100.0

n.a. Not available p Preliminary r Revised
Indexes equal 100 in 2004
Source: The Conference Board All Rights Reserved