The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for China Increased in September

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Oct 23, 2014, 10:00 ET

BEIJING, Oct. 23, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for China increased 0.9 percent in September to 302.6 (2004 = 100), following a 0.7 percent increase in August and a 1.3 percent increase in July. Five of the six components contributed positively to the index in September.

"The six-month growth rate of the Leading Economic Index has eased steadily throughout the third quarter, indicating increased downside risks to economic growth in the months ahead," said Andrew Polk, resident economist at The Conference Board China Center in Beijing. "While activity in the property sector stabilized a bit, sharp weakening in demand for both bank credit and real estate point to sluggish private investment in the last quarter of 2014. Recent developments, therefore, confirm our long-term view of a soft fall of the economy as we reported earlier this week."

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for China, which measures current economic activity, increased 0.5 percent to 266.1 (2004 = 100), following no change in August and a 1.1 percent increase in July. Four of the five components contributed positively to the index in September.

The Conference Board LEI for China aggregates six economic indicators that measure economic activity in China. Each of the LEI components has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called "noise" to show underlying trends more clearly.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for China

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for China was launched in May 2010. Plotted back to 1986, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the economic cycles of China. The Conference Board also produces LEIs for Australia, Brazil, the Euro Area, France, Germany, India, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for China include:

Total Loans Issued by Financial Institutions (source: People's Bank of China)
5000 Industry Enterprises Diffusion Index: Raw Materials Supply Index (source: People's Bank of China)
NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: PMI Supplier Deliveries (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
Consumer Expectations Index (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
Total Floor Space Started (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: Export Orders (source: National Bureau of Statistics)

For more information including full press release and technical notes:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=11

To view The Conference Board calendar of 2014 indicator releases:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/

About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. For additional information about The Conference Board and how it can meet your needs, visit our website at www.conference-board.org.

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Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes

	2014						6-month
	Jul		Aug		Sep		Mar to Sep

Leading Economic index (LEI)	297.9	p	299.9	p	302.6	p
Percent Change	1.3	p	0.7	p	0.9	p	6.0
Diffusion	75.0		41.7		66.7		75.0

Coincident Economic Index (CEI)	264.7	p	264.8	p	266.1	p
Percent Change	1.1	p	0.0	p	0.5	p	3.9
Diffusion	80.0		50.0		80.0		100.0

n.a. Not available p Preliminary r Revised
Indexes equal 100 in 2004
Source: The Conference Board All Rights Reserved