The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for China Increased in November

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Dec 22, 2014, 09:00 ET

BEIJING, Dec. 22, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for China increased 0.9 percent in November to 308.0 (2004 = 100), following a 0.8 percent increase in October and a 1.0 percent increase in September. Three of the six components contributed positively to the index in November.

"Despite the increase in November, with bank loans as the primary driving force, the six-month growth in the China Leading Economic Index continues to moderate," said Jing Sima, senior economist at The Conference Board. "Real estate activity continues to deteriorate, and manufacturing and industrial output both showed significant weaknesses in November as well. It is highly doubtful that the central bank's recent policy easing will prevent China's economy from losing further momentum in the coming months."

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for China, which measures current economic activity, increased 0.1 percent in November to 266.4 (2004 = 100), following a 0.1 percent increase in October and a 0.4 percent increase in September. Three of the five components contributed positively to the index in November.

The Conference Board LEI for China aggregates six economic indicators that measure economic activity in China. Each of the LEI components has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called "noise" to show underlying trends more clearly.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for China
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for China was launched in May 2010. Plotted back to 1986, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the economic cycles of China. The Conference Board also produces LEIs for Australia, Brazil, the Euro Area, France, Germany, India, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for China include:

Total Loans Issued by Financial Institutions (source: People's Bank of China)
5000 Industry Enterprises Diffusion Index: Raw Materials Supply Index (source: People's Bank of China)
NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: PMI Supplier Deliveries (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
Consumer Expectations Index (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
Total Floor Space Started (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: Export Orders (source: National Bureau of Statistics)

For more information including full press release and technical notes:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=11

To view The Conference Board calendar of 2014 indicator releases:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/

About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. For additional information about The Conference Board and how it can meet your needs, visit our website at www.conference-board.org.

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Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes
	2014						6-month
	Sep		Oct		Nov		May to Nov

Leading Economic Index (LEI)	302.9	p	305.4	p	308.0	p
Percent Change	1.0	p	0.8	p	0.9	p	6.0
Diffusion	66.7		50.0		41.7		83.3

Coincident Economic Index (CEI)	266.0	p	266.2	p	266.4	p
Percent Change	0.4	p	0.1	p	0.1	p	2.7
Diffusion	80.0		80.0		60.0		80.0

n.a. Not available p Preliminary r Revised Indexes equal 100 in 2004 Source: The Conference Board All Rights Reserved