The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for China Increased Again in September

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Oct 21, 2013, 10:00 ET

BEIJING, Oct. 21, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for China increased 0.9 percent in September. The index stands at 271.8 (2004 = 100), following a 0.8 percent increase in August and a 1.4 percent increase in July. Four of the six components contributed positively to the index in September.

Says Andrew Polk, resident economist at The Conference Board China Center in Beijing: "Relatively strong credit expansion in September along with a bounce back in real estate activity helped to support LEI growth this month. However, weaker growth in current activity indicates that the 3^rd quarter recovery from the slowdown earlier this year has already begun to lose some steam. Continued reliance on policy-driven growth, rather than a fundamental resurgence in real economic activity, will likely lead to a slower economic expansion in the fourth quarter and into the beginning of 2014."

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^®(CEI) for China, which measures current economic activity, increased 0.2 percent in September to 248.9 (2004 = 100), following a 1.2 percent increase in August and a 1.1 percent increase in July. Four of the five components contributed positively to the index in September.

The Conference Board LEI for China aggregates six economic indicators that measure economic activity in China. Each of the LEI components has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called "noise" to show underlying trends more clearly.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for China
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for China was launched in May 2010. Plotted back to 1986, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the economic cycles of China. The Conference Board also produces LEIs for Australia, the Euro Area, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for China include:

Total Loans Issued by Financial Institutions (source: People's Bank of China)
5000 Industry Enterprises Diffusion Index: Raw Materials Supply Index (source: People's Bank of China)
NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: PMI Supplier Deliveries (source: National Bureau of Statistics) Consumer Expectations Index (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
Total Floor Space Started (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: Export Orders (source: National Bureau of Statistics)

For more information including full press release and technical notes:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=11

To view The Conference Board calendar of 2013 indicator releases:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/

About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. For additional information about The Conference Board and how it can meet your needs, visit our website at www.conference-board.org.

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Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes
	2013						6-month
	Jul		Aug		Sep		Mar to Sep

Leading Economic Index (LEI)	267.3	p	269.4	p	271.8	p
Percent Change	1.4	p	0.8	p	0.9	p	5.8
Diffusion	91.7		66.7		58.3		83.3

Coincident Economic Index (CEI)	245.5	p	248.5	p	248.9	p
Percent Change	1.1	p	1.2	p	0.2	p	4.7
Diffusion	80.0		100.0		80.0		100.0

n.a. Not available p Preliminary r Revised
Indexes equal 100 in 2004
Source: The Conference Board All Rights Reserved