The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for China Increased Again in August

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Oct 18, 2011, 10:00 ET

BEIJING, Oct. 18, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China increased 0.5 percent in August to 159.5 (2004 = 100), following a 0.6 percent increase in July and a 0.9 percent increase in June. Four of the six components contributed positively to the index in August.

Says Jing Sima, economist for The Conference Board: "The Leading Economic Index for China in August points to continued expansion in economic activity, but at a slower rate in light of domestic monetary tightening and weakening global growth. Despite continued gains in the composite LEI this year, the main drivers of the upward trend, bank credit expansion and real estate investment, continue to slow compared to 2010. Meanwhile, the cooling of external demand from the United States, the Euro Area, and Japan may be adding to slower growth."

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for China, which measures current economic activity, increased 0.5 percent in August to 207.1 (2004 = 100), following a 0.4 percent increase in July and a 1.3 percent increase in June. Four of the five components contributed positively to the index in August.

The Conference Board LEI for China aggregates six economic indicators that measure economic activity in China. Each of the LEI components has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called "noise" to show underlying trends more clearly.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for China was launched in May 2010. Plotted back to 1986, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the economic cycles of China.

The Conference Board also produces LEIs for Australia, the Euro Area, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China include:

Total Loans Issued by Financial Institutions (source: People's Bank of China)
5000 Industry Enterprises Diffusion Index: Raw Materials Supply Index (source: People's Bank of China)
NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: PMI Supplier Deliveries (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
Consumer Expectations Index (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
Total Floor Space Started (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: Export Orders (source: National Bureau of Statistics)

For more information including full press release and technical notes: http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=11

To view The Conference Board calendar of 2011 indicator releases: http://www.conference-board.org/data/

* There are no series in The Conference Board LEI for China that are based on our estimates. There are no series in The Conference Board CEI for China that are based on our estimates.

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501(c)(3) tax-exempt status in the United States. For additional information about The Conference Board and how it can meet your needs, visit our website at www.conference-board.org.


Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes

	2011			6-month
	Jun	Jul	Aug	Feb to Aug
Leading Economic index (LEI)	157.8 r	158.7 r	159.5
Percent Change	0.9	0.6	0.5	3.6
Diffusion	75.0	66.7	66.7	50.0
Coincident Economic Index (CEI)	205.1 r	206.0 r	207.1
Percent Change	1.3 r	0.4	0.5	5.6
Diffusion	100.0	90.0	80.0	100.0

n.a. Not available p Preliminary r Revised
Indexes equal 100 in 2004
Source: The Conference Board All Rights Reserved