The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Brazil, Together with Fundacao Getulio Vargas, Increased in July

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Aug 18, 2014, 10:00 ET

RIO DE JANEIRO, Aug. 18, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®for Brazil, together with Fundacao Getulio Vargas (TCB/FGV Brazil LEI), increased 0.8 percent in July. The index now stands at 120.3 (2004 = 100), following a 1.7 percent decline in June and a 1.7 percent decline in May. Five of the eight components contributed positively to the index in July.

Paulo Picchetti, Economist at FGV/IBRE says, "The July gains in both the LEI and CEI are noteworthy given six months of consecutive declines, however it's still too early to suggest a pickup in economic activity. July's improvement was accompanied by decelerating prices which in turn helped improve expectations concerning future monetary policy, and consumers and service sector expectations also improved."

Jing Sima, Economist at The Conference Board adds, "July's increase in the LEI for Brazil was mainly driven by improvements in exports, the service sector, and stock prices. Nevertheless, domestic demand remains sluggish and manufacturing indicators have been declining persistently. Despite July's improvement, the growth in the LEI continues to suggest that the Brazilian economy is unlikely to gain much traction in the coming months."

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^®for Brazil, together with Fundacao Getulio Vargas (TCB/FGV Brazil CEI), which measures current economic activity, increased 0.6 percent in July at 127.6 (2004 = 100), following a 0.5 percent decline in June and a 0.5 percent decline in May. Four of the six components contributed positively to the index in July.

TCB/FGV Brazil LEI aggregates eight economic indicators that measure economic activity in Brazil. Each of the LEI components has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called "noise" to show underlying trends more clearly.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®for Brazil, together with Fundacao Getulio Vargas

TCB/FGV Brazil LEI was launched in July 2013. Plotted back to 1996, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the economic cycles of Brazil. The Conference Board also produces LEIs for Australia, China, the Euro Area, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

The eight components of TCB/FGV Brazil LEI include:

Swap Rate, 1 year (Source: Central Bank of Brazil)
Stock Price Bovespa Index (Source: BOVESPA - Bolsa de Valores de Sao Paulo/ Sao Paulo Stock Exchange)
Manufacturing Survey: Expectations Index (Source: FGV/IBRE)
Services Sector Survey: Expectations Index (Source: FGV/IBRE)
Consumer Expectations Survey: Expectations Index (Source: FGV/IBRE)
Physical Production of Durables Consumer Goods Index (Source: IBGE - Instituto Brasilieiro de Geografia e Estatistica/ Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics)
Terms of Trade Index (Source: FUNCEX - Fundacao Centro de Estudos do Comercio Exterior/The Foundation Center for the Study of Foreign Trade)
Exports Volume Index (Source: FUNCEX - Fundacao Centro de Estudos do Comercio Exterior/The Foundation Center for the Study of Foreign Trade)

To view latest press release: https://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=12

To view The Conference Board calendar of 2014 indicator releases: http://www.conference-board.org/data/

ABOUT THE CONFERENCE BOARD

The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501(c)(3) tax-exempt status in the United States of America.

www.conferenceboard.org

ABOUT FGV/IBRE

The Brazilian Institute of Economics (Instituto Brasilieiro de Economia—IBRE) at Fundacao Getulio Vargas (FGV) was founded in 1951 to research, analyse, produce and disseminate macroeconomic statistics and applied studies. Its purpose is to inform and help improve public policies and private activities in the Brazilian economy. IBRE is a leading institute in calculating the Brazilian GDP and producing price indices including the General Price Index (IGP) which served as Brazil´s official inflation index for many years. In addition to price indices, IBRE prepares trend and business cycle indicators that are widely used by administrators and analysts.

www.fgv.br/ibre

Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes

	2014			6-month
	May	Jun	Jul	Jan to Jul
Leading Economic Index	121.5 r	119.4 r	120.3 p
Percent Change	-1.7 r	-1.7 r	0.8 p	-4.0
Diffusion	25.0	75.0	62.5	37.5

Coincident Economic Index	127.4 p	126.8 p	127.6 p
Percent Change	-0.5 p	-0.5 p	0.6 p	-1.3
Diffusion	.0	41.7	83.3	0.0

n.a. Not available p Preliminary r Revised
Indexes equal 100 in 2004
Sources: The Conference Board, FGV/IBRE All Rights Reserved