The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Brazil, Together with Fundacao Getulio Vargas, Increased in August

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Sep 18, 2013, 10:01 ET

RIO DE JANEIRO, Sept. 18, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®for Brazil, together with Fundacao Getulio Vargas (TCB/FGV Brazil LEI), increased 0.9 percent in August. The index now stands at 125.2 (2004 = 100), following a 2.2 percent decrease in July and a 0.3 percent decrease in June. Five of the eight components contributed positively to the index in August.

"Relatively strong GDP growth of 6 percent (annualized) in the second quarter is unlikely to hold up," said Paulo Picchetti, Economist at FGV/IBRE. "The behavior of LEI over recent months is consistent with a considerable slowdown for the third quarter. Subsequently, the slight pickup in the August LEI may be an early sign that growth will rebound in the last quarter of 2013. Any expected recovery, however, rests on a number of uncertainties in both the domestic and global growth scenarios."

Ataman Ozyildirim, Economist at The Conference Board, added, "A pickup in consumer and service sector expectations drove the LEI higher in August after four consecutive declines. The improvement points to a relative diminishing of risk factors for the economy, but widespread weaknesses among the LEI's components so far this year suggest that a significant growth revival is unlikely in the second half of 2013."

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^®for Brazil, together with Fundacao Getulio Vargas (TCB/FGV Brazil CEI), which measures current economic activity, increased 0.1 percent in August to 128.7 (2004 = 100), following no change in July and a 0.2 percent increase in June, according to preliminary estimates. Three of the six components contributed positively to the index in August. TCB/FGV Brazil LEI aggregates eight economic indicators that measure economic activity in Brazil. Each of the LEI components has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called "noise" to show underlying trends more clearly.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®for Brazil, together with Fundacao Getulio Vargas

TCB/FGV Brazil LEI was launched in July 2013. Plotted back to 1996, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the economic cycles of Brazil. The Conference Board also produces LEIs for Australia, China, the Euro Area, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

The eight components of TCB/FGV Brazil LEI include:

Swap Rate, 1 year (Source: Central Bank of Brazil)
Stock Price Bovespa Index (Source: BOVESPA - Bolsa de Valores de Sao Paulo/ Sao Paulo Stock Exchange)
Manufacturing Survey: Expectations Index (Source: FGV/IBRE)
Services Sector Survey: Expectations Index (Source: FGV/IBRE)
Consumer Expectations Survey: Expectations Index (Source: FGV/IBRE)
Physical Production of Durables Consumer Goods Index (Source: IBGE - Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatistica/ Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics)
Terms of Trade Index (Source: FUNCEX - Fundacao Centro de Estudos do Comercio Exterior/The Foundation Center for the Study of Foreign Trade)
Exports Volume Index (Source: FUNCEX - Fundacao Centro de Estudos do Comercio Exterior/The Foundation Center for the Study of Foreign Trade)

https://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=12

To view The Conference Board calendar of 2013 indicator releases:

http://www.conference-board.org/data/

ABOUT THE CONFERENCE BOARD

The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501(c)(3) tax-exempt status in the United States of America.

www.conferenceboard.org

ABOUT FGV/IBRE

The Brazilian Institute of Economics (Instituto Brasilieiro de Economia—IBRE) at Fundacao Getulio Vargas (FGV) was founded in 1951 to research, analyse, produce and disseminate macroeconomic statistics and applied studies. Its purpose is to inform and help improve public policies and private activities in the Brazilian economy. IBRE is a leading institute in calculating the Brazilian GDP and producing price indices including the General Price Index (IGP) which served as Brazil´s official inflation index for many years. In addition to price indices, IBRE prepares trend and business cycle indicators that are widely used by administrators and analysts.

www.fgv.br/ibre

Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes

	Jun		2013 Jul		Aug		6-month Feb to Aug

Leading Economic Index	126.9		124.1	r	125.2	p
Percent Change	-0.3	r	-2.2	r	0.9	p	-2.7
Diffusion	50.0		25.0		62.5		37.5

Coincident Economic Index	128.6	r	128.6	p	128.7	p
Percent Change	0.2	r	0.0	p	0.1	p	0.5
Diffusion	50.0		75.0		58.3		83.3

n.a. Not available p Preliminary r Revised
Indexes equal 100 in 2004
Sources: The Conference Board, FGV/IBRE		All Rights Reserved