The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Brazil, Together with Fundacao Getulio Vargas, Fell in January

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Feb 20, 2015, 08:00 ET

RIO DE JANEIRO, Feb. 20, 2015 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Brazil, together with Fundacao Getulio Vargas (TCB/FGV Brazil LEI), declined 1.6 percent in January. The index now stands at 93.6 (2010 = 100), following a 0.2 percent decline in December and a 1.4 percent decline in November. The exports volume index, the manufacturing survey: expectations index, and the consumer durable goods production index components contributed positively to the index in January.

"The downward trend in the Leading Economic Index for Brazil suggests economic conditions will remain rather weak," said Paulo Picchetti, Economist at FGV/IBRE. "Increasing uncertainty surrounding the global economic environment, coupled with restrictive domestic monetary and fiscal policies, and potential shortages in water and energy supplies, suggest Brazil's economy will continue to face considerable downside risks in the near-term."

"Three consecutive declines in the LEI for Brazil have pushed its six-month change further into negative territory," said Ataman Ozyildirim, Economist at The Conference Board. "The recent weaknesses among the leading indicators have been very widespread, and when combined with their volatility, there is little to suggest economic conditions will improve over the next several months."

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^®for Brazil, together with Fundacao Getulio Vargas (TCB/FGV Brazil CEI), which measures current economic activity, increased 0.4 percent to 105.3 (2010 = 100), following a 1.0 percent decline in December and a 0.5 percent increase in November. All six components contributed positively to the index in January.

TCB/FGV Brazil LEI aggregates eight economic indicators that measure economic activity in Brazil. Each of the LEI components has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called "noise" to show underlying trends more clearly.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®for Brazil, together with Fundacao Getulio Vargas

TCB/FGV Brazil LEI was launched in July 2013. Plotted back to 1996, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the economic cycles of Brazil. The Conference Board also produces LEIs for Australia, China, the Euro Area, France, Germany, Japan, India, Korea, Mexico, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

The eight components of TCB/FGV Brazil LEI include:

Swap Rate, 1 year (Source: Central Bank of Brazil)
Stock Price Bovespa Index (Source: BOVESPA - Bolsa de Valores de Sao Paulo/ Sao Paulo Stock Exchange)
Manufacturing Survey: Expectations Index (Source: FGV/IBRE)
Services Sector Survey: Expectations Index (Source: FGV/IBRE)
Consumer Expectations Survey: Expectations Index (Source: FGV/IBRE)
Physical Production of Durables Consumer Goods Index (Source: IBGE - Instituto Brasilieiro de Geografia e Estatistica/ Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics)
Terms of Trade Index (Source: FUNCEX - Fundacao Centro de Estudos do Comercio Exterior/The Foundation Center for the Study of Foreign Trade)
Exports Volume Index (Source: FUNCEX - Fundacao Centro de Estudos do Comercio Exterior/The Foundation Center for the Study of Foreign Trade)

https://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=12

To view The Conference Board calendar of 2015 indicator releases:

http://www.conference-board.org/data/

ABOUT THE CONFERENCE BOARD

The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501(c)(3) tax-exempt status in the United States of America.
www.conferenceboard.org

ABOUT FGV/IBRE

The Brazilian Institute of Economics (Instituto Brasilieiro de Economia—IBRE) at Fundacao Getulio Vargas (FGV) was founded in 1951 to research, analyze, produce and disseminate macroeconomic statistics and applied studies. Its purpose is to inform and help improve public policies and private activities in the Brazilian economy. IBRE is a leading institute in calculating the Brazilian GDP and producing price indices including the General Price Index (IGP) which served as Brazil´s official inflation index for many years. In addition to price indices, IBRE prepares trend and business cycle indicators that are widely used by administrators and analysts.
www.fgv.br/ibre

Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes
	2014		2015	6-month
	Nov	Dec	Jan	Jul to Jan

Leading Economic Index	95.3 r	95.1 r	93.6 p
Percent Change	-1.4	-0.2 r	-1.6 p	-4.4
Diffusion	12.5	37.5	43.8	12.5

Coincident Economic Index	106.0 r	104.9 p	105.3 p
Percent Change	0.5 r	-1.0 p	0.4 p	0.5
Diffusion	66.7	16.7	100.0	83.3

n.a. Not available p Preliminary r Revised
Indexes equal 100 in 2010
Sources: The Conference Board, FGV/IBRE			All Rights Reserved