The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Brazil, Together with Fundacao Getulio Vargas, Fell in January

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Feb 19, 2014, 09:00 ET

RIO DE JANEIRO, Feb. 19, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®for Brazil, together with Fundacao Getulio Vargas (TCB/FGV Brazil LEI), decreased 1.1 percent in January. The index now stands at 125.0 (2004 = 100), following a 0.4 percent increase in December and a 0.4 percent decline in November. Two of the eight components contributed positively to the index in January.

Paulo Picchetti, Economist at FGV/IBRE, said, "While most of the Brazilian economic activity data reinforce the uncertainty that has prevailed over the past few months, labor market performance and consumption still support expectations of positive, albeit very weak, growth in 2014."

Jing Sima, Economist at The Conference Board, added, "The LEI fell sharply in January, led by disappointing results in the business and consumer surveys and the financial indicators. However, the slightly positive six-month growth rates of the LEI and CEI suggest that it is too early to further downgrade what is already a weak economic environment."

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^®for Brazil, together with Fundacao Getulio Vargas (TCB/FGV Brazil CEI), which measures current economic activity, increased 0.4 percent in January to 128.5 (2004 = 100), following a 0.6 percent decline in December and a 0.2 percent decline in November. Three of the six components contributed positively to the index in January.

TCB/FGV Brazil LEI aggregates eight economic indicators that measure economic activity in Brazil. Each of the LEI components has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called "noise" to show underlying trends more clearly.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®for Brazil, together with Fundacao Getulio Vargas

TCB/FGV Brazil LEI was launched in July 2013. Plotted back to 1996, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the economic cycles of Brazil. The Conference Board also produces LEIs for Australia, China, the Euro Area, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

The eight components of TCB/FGV Brazil LEI include:

Swap Rate, 1 year (Source: Central Bank of Brazil)
Stock Price Bovespa Index (Source: BOVESPA - Bolsa de Valores de São Paulo/ São Paulo Stock Exchange)
Manufacturing Survey: Expectations Index (Source: FGV/IBRE)
Services Sector Survey: Expectations Index (Source: FGV/IBRE)
Consumer Expectations Survey: Expectations Index (Source: FGV/IBRE)
Physical Production of Durables Consumer Goods Index (Source: IBGE - Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística/ Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics)
Terms of Trade Index (Source: FUNCEX - Fundacao Centro de Estudos do Comércio Exterior/The Foundation Center for the Study of Foreign Trade)
Exports Volume Index (Source: FUNCEX - Fundacao Centro de Estudos do Comércio Exterior/The Foundation Center for the Study of Foreign Trade)

https://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=12

To view The Conference Board calendar of 2014 indicator releases:

http://www.conference-board.org/data/

ABOUT THE CONFERENCE BOARD

The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501(c)(3) tax-exempt status in the United States of America.

www.conferenceboard.org

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ABOUT FGV/IBRE

The Brazilian Institute of Economics (Instituto Brasilieiro de Economia—IBRE) at Fundação Getúlio Vargas (FGV) was founded in 1951 to research, analyse, produce and disseminate macroeconomic statistics and applied studies. Its purpose is to inform and help improve public policies and private activities in the Brazilian economy. IBRE is a leading institute in calculating the Brazilian GDP and producing price indices including the General Price Index (IGP) which served as Brazil´s official inflation index for many years. In addition to price indices, IBRE prepares trend and business cycle indicators that are widely used by administrators and analysts.

www.fgv.br/ibre


Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes

	2013				2014		6-month
	Nov		Dec		Jan		Jul to Jan

Leading Economic Index	125.9	r	126.4	r	125.0	p
Percent Change	-0.4	r	0.4	r	-1.1	p	0.3
Diffusion	37.5		50.0		25.0		37.5

Coincident Economic Index	128.8	r	128.0	p	128.5	p
Percent Change	-0.2		-0.6	p	0.4	p	0.2
Diffusion	33.3		33.3		58.3		66.7

n.a. Not available p Preliminary r Revised
Indexes equal 100 in 2004
Sources: The Conference Board, FGV/IBRE All Rights Reserved