The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Brazil, Together with Fundacao Getulio Vargas, Fell in August

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Sep 16, 2015, 10:00 ET

RIO DE JANEIRO, Sept. 16, 2015 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®for Brazil, together with Fundacao Getulio Vargas (TCB/FGV Brazil LEI), fell 1.5 percent in August. The index now stands at 87.7 (2010 = 100), following a 0.7 percent decline in July and a 0.3 percent decline in June. The terms of trade index, the exports volume index, stock prices, the services sector survey: expectations index, the manufacturing survey´s expectations index, the consumers survey: expectations index, and the swap rate (inverted) all contributed negatively to the index in August.

"The Brazil Leading Economic Index decreased sharply in August for the tenth consecutive month. Declining business and consumer expectations, trade and exports, plus stock market volatility all contributed to the LEI's decline," said Paulo Picchetti, Economist at FGV/IBRE. "The continued deterioration of the LEI, coupled with the uncertainties related to the fiscal adjustment, suggests Brazil will remain mired in a recession for the rest of 2015."

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^®for Brazil, together with Fundacao Getulio Vargas (TCB/FGV Brazil CEI), which measures current economic activity, increased 0.1 percent to 102.7 (2010 = 100) in August, following no change in July and a 0.2 percent decline in June. Four of the six components contributed positively to the index in August.

TCB/FGV Brazil LEI aggregates eight economic indicators that measure economic activity in Brazil. Each of the LEI components has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called "noise" to show underlying trends more clearly.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®for Brazil, together with Fundacao Getulio Vargas

TCB/FGV Brazil LEI was launched in July 2013. Plotted back to 1996, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the economic cycles of Brazil. The Conference Board also produces LEIs for Australia, China, the Euro Area, France, Germany, Japan, India, Korea, Mexico, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

The eight components of TCB/FGV Brazil LEI include:

Swap Rate, 1 year (Source: Central Bank of Brazil)
Stock Price Bovespa Index (Source: BOVESPA - Bolsa de Valores de Sao Paulo/ Sao Paulo Stock Exchange)
Manufacturing Survey: Expectations Index (Source: FGV/IBRE)
Services Sector Survey: Expectations Index (Source: FGV/IBRE)
Consumer Expectations Survey: Expectations Index (Source: FGV/IBRE)
Physical Production of Durables Consumer Goods Index (Source: IBGE - Instituto Brasilieiro de Geografia e Estatistica/ Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics)
Terms of Trade Index (Source: FUNCEX - Fundacao Centro de Estudos do Comercio Exterior/The Foundation Center for the Study of Foreign Trade)
Exports Volume Index (Source: FUNCEX - Fundacao Centro de Estudos do Comercio Exterior/The Foundation Center for the Study of Foreign Trade)

https://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=12

To view The Conference Board calendar of 2015 indicator releases:

http://www.conference-board.org/data/

ABOUT THE CONFERENCE BOARD

The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501(c)(3) tax-exempt status in the United States of America.
www.conferenceboard.org

ABOUT FGV/IBRE

The Brazilian Institute of Economics (Instituto Brasilieiro de Economia—IBRE) at Fundacao Getulio Vargas (FGV) was founded in 1951 to research, analyze, produce and disseminate macroeconomic statistics and applied studies. Its purpose is to inform and help improve public policies and private activities in the Brazilian economy. IBRE is a leading institute in calculating the Brazilian GDP and producing price indices including the General Price Index (IGP) which served as Brazil´s official inflation index for many years. In addition to price indices, IBRE prepares trend and business cycle indicators that are widely used by administrators and analysts.
www.fgv.br/ibre

Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes

			2015				6-month
	Jun		Jul		Aug		Feb to Aug

Leading Economic Index	89.6	r	89.0	r	87.7	p
Percent Change	-0.3	r	-0.7	r	-1.5	p	-4.6
Diffusion	50.0		50.0		12.5		12.5

Coincident Economic Index	102.6	r	102.6	p	102.7	p
Percent Change	-0.2	r	0.0	p	0.1	p	-1.3
Diffusion	25.0		66.7		75.0		0.0

n.a. Not available p Preliminary r Revised
Indexes equal 100 in 2010
Sources: The Conference Board, FGV/IBRE All Rights Reserved