The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Brazil, Together with Fundacao Getulio Vargas, Fell Again in February

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Mar 17, 2015, 10:00 ET

RIO DE JANEIRO, March 17, 2015 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®for Brazil, together with Fundacao Getulio Vargas (TCB/FGV Brazil LEI), declined 1.3 percent in February. The index now stands at 92.3 (2010 = 100), following a 1.7 percent decline in January and a 0.2 percent decline in December. Stock prices, the terms of trade index, and the consumer durable goods production index components contributed positively to the index in February.

"Recent fiscal and monetary policies, both implemented and yet to be implemented, are intended to improve Brazil's medium to longer-term economic growth," said Paulo Picchetti, Economist at FGV/IBRE. "However, in the short term, the persistent weaknesses in the expectations indicators, coupled with political difficulties and unfavorable trade conditions, suggest these policies will slow growth even further."

"The six-month growth rate of TCB/FGV Brazil LEI fell deeper into negative territory, suggesting that economic growth is likely to deteriorate in the short term," said Ataman Ozyildirim, Economist at The Conference Board. "Meanwhile, the Coincident Economic Index for Brazil has shown little improvement in recent months, suggesting that current economic conditions remain tenuous."

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^®for Brazil, together with Fundacao Getulio Vargas (TCB/FGV Brazil CEI), which measures current economic activity, increased 0.1 percent to 105.3 (2010 = 100) in February, following a 0.6 percent increase in January and a 1.5 percent decline in December. Four of the six components contributed positively to the index in February.

TCB/FGV Brazil LEI aggregates eight economic indicators that measure economic activity in Brazil. Each of the LEI components has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called "noise" to show underlying trends more clearly.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®for Brazil, together with Fundacao Getulio Vargas

TCB/FGV Brazil LEI was launched in July 2013. Plotted back to 1996, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the economic cycles of Brazil. The Conference Board also produces LEIs for Australia, China, the Euro Area, France, Germany, Japan, India, Korea, Mexico, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

The eight components of TCB/FGV Brazil LEI include:

Swap Rate, 1 year (Source: Central Bank of Brazil)
Stock Price Bovespa Index (Source: BOVESPA - Bolsa de Valores de Sao Paulo/ Sao Paulo Stock Exchange)
Manufacturing Survey: Expectations Index (Source: FGV/IBRE)
Services Sector Survey: Expectations Index (Source: FGV/IBRE)
Consumer Expectations Survey: Expectations Index (Source: FGV/IBRE)
Physical Production of Durables Consumer Goods Index (Source: IBGE - Instituto Brasilieiro de Geografia e Estatistica/ Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics)
Terms of Trade Index (Source: FUNCEX - Fundacao Centro de Estudos do Comercio Exterior/The Foundation Center for the Study of Foreign Trade)
Exports Volume Index (Source: FUNCEX - Fundacao Centro de Estudos do Comercio Exterior/The Foundation Center for the Study of Foreign Trade)

https://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=12

To view The Conference Board calendar of 2015 indicator releases:

http://www.conference-board.org/data/

ABOUT THE CONFERENCE BOARD

The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501(c)(3) tax-exempt status in the United States of America.
www.conferenceboard.org

ABOUT FGV/IBRE

The Brazilian Institute of Economics (Instituto Brasilieiro de Economia--IBRE) at Fundacao Getulio Vargas (FGV) was founded in 1951 to research, analyze, produce and disseminate macroeconomic statistics and applied studies. Its purpose is to inform and help improve public policies and private activities in the Brazilian economy. IBRE is a leading institute in calculating the Brazilian GDP and producing price indices including the General Price Index (IGP) which served as Brazil´s official inflation index for many years. In addition to price indices, IBRE prepares trend and business cycle indicators that are widely used by administrators and analysts.
www.fgv.br/ibre



	2014				2015		6-month
	Dec		Jan		Feb		Aug to Feb

Leading Economic Index	95.1		93.5	r	92.3	p
Percent Change	-0.2		-1.7	r	-1.3	p	-4.7
Diffusion	37.5		31.3		37.5		12.5

Coincident Economic Index	104.6	r	105.2	p	105.3	p
Percent Change	-1.5	r	0.6	p	0.1	p	0.1
Diffusion	.0		100.0		66.7		41.7

n.a. Not available p Preliminary r Revised
Indexes equal 100 in 2010
Sources: The Conference Board, FGV/IBRE All Rights Reserved