The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Brazil, Together with Fundacao Getulio Vargas, Decreased in September

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Oct 17, 2014, 10:00 ET

RIO DE JANEIRO, Oct. 17, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®for Brazil, together with Fundacao Getulio Vargas (TCB/FGV Brazil LEI), decreased 0.4 percent in September. The index now stands at 120.6 (2004 = 100), following a 1.0 percent decline in August and a 2.3 percent increase in July. Three of the eight components contributed positively to the index in September.

"The LEI for Brazil experienced yet another decrease – it's eighth in the past nine months," said Paulo Picchetti, economist at FGV/IBRE. "The recent declines in the LEI reflect largely the ongoing uncertainties brought on by the general elections, as well as continued weakness in domestic demand. However, the rate of decline in the LEI has moderated recently, signaling a possible stabilization following the recent deterioration in the Brazilian economy."

"The LEI for Brazil declined again in September, despite consumer expectations offsetting negative contributions from the financial and manufacturing indicators. However, while the weaknesses in the index remain widespread, its six-month decline seems to be stabilizing," said Ataman Ozyildirim, economist at The Conference Board. "And, although it is too early to conclude the downward trend has ended, it does suggest the softness in current economic conditions may begin to moderate soon."

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^®for Brazil, together with Fundacao Getulio Vargas (TCB/FGV Brazil CEI), which measures current economic activity, increased 0.1 percent in September to 127.6 (2004 = 100), following a 0.5 percent increase in August and no change in July. Three of the six components contributed positively to the index in September.

TCB/FGV Brazil LEI aggregates eight economic indicators that measure economic activity in Brazil. Each of the LEI components has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called "noise" to show underlying trends more clearly.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®for Brazil, together with Fundacao Getulio Vargas

TCB/FGV Brazil LEI was launched in July 2013. Plotted back to 1996, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the economic cycles of Brazil. The Conference Board also produces LEIs for Australia, China, the Euro Area, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

The eight components of TCB/FGV Brazil LEI include:

Swap Rate, 1 year (Source: Central Bank of Brazil)
Stock Price Bovespa Index (Source: BOVESPA - Bolsa de Valores de Sao Paulo/ Sao Paulo Stock Exchange)
Manufacturing Survey: Expectations Index (Source: FGV/IBRE)
Services Sector Survey: Expectations Index (Source: FGV/IBRE)
Consumer Expectations Survey: Expectations Index (Source: FGV/IBRE)
Physical Production of Durables Consumer Goods Index (Source: IBGE - Instituto Brasilieiro de Geografia e Estatistica/ Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics)
Terms of Trade Index (Source: FUNCEX - Fundacao Centro de Estudos do Comercio Exterior/The Foundation Center for the Study of Foreign Trade)
Exports Volume Index (Source: FUNCEX - Fundacao Centro de Estudos do Comercio Exterior/The Foundation Center for the Study of Foreign Trade)

https://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=12

To view The Conference Board calendar of 2014 indicator releases:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/

ABOUT THE CONFERENCE BOARD

The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501(c)(3) tax-exempt status in the United States of America.

www.conferenceboard.org

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ABOUT FGV/IBRE

The Brazilian Institute of Economics (Instituto Brasilieiro de Economia—IBRE) at Fundacao Getulio Vargas (FGV) was founded in 1951 to research, analyze, produce and disseminate macroeconomic statistics and applied studies. Its purpose is to inform and help improve public policies and private activities in the Brazilian economy. IBRE is a leading institute in calculating the Brazilian GDP and producing price indices including the General Price Index (IGP) which served as Brazil´s official inflation index for many years. In addition to price indices, IBRE prepares trend and business cycle indicators that are widely used by administrators and analysts.

www.fgv.br/ibre

Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes

		2014						6-month
		Jul		Aug		Sep		Mar to Sep

Leading Economic Index		122.3	r	121.1	r	120.6	p
	Percent Change	2.3	r	-1.0	r	-0.4	p	-2.8
	Diffusion	75.0		37.5		37.5		25.0

Coincident Economic Index		126.9		127.5	p	127.6	p
	Percent Change	0.0	r	0.5	p	0.1	p	-0.5
	Diffusion	50.0		83.3		50.0		41.7

n.a. Not available p Preliminary r Revised
Indexes equal 100 in 2004
Sources: The Conference Board, FGV/IBRE All Rights Reserved