The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) Increased in October

Solid Job Growth to Continue

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Nov 09, 2015, 10:00 ET

NEW YORK, Nov. 9, 2015 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) increased in October. The index now stands at 129.48, up from 128.65 in September (after a downward revision). The change represents a 4.1 percent gain in the ETI compared to a year ago.

"The Employment Trends Index continues to show solid and broad-based gains, with no significant slowdown in job growth expected through the first quarter of 2016," said Gad Levanon, Managing Director of Macroeconomic and Labor Market Research at The Conference Board. "Solid job growth and the lack of recovery in labor-force participation suggest that the unemployment rate may dip below 4.5 percent by this time next year."

October's increase in the ETI was driven by positive contributions from six of the eight components. In order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest, these were: Ratio of Involuntarily Part-time to All Part-time Workers, Number of Temporary Employees, Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales, Industrial Production, Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance, and Job Openings.

The Employment Trends Index aggregates eight labor-market indicators, each of which has proven accurate in its own area. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out "noise" to show underlying trends more clearly.

The eight labor-market indicators aggregated into the Employment Trends Index include:

Percentage of Respondents Who Say They Find "Jobs Hard to Get" (The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey^®)
Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance (U.S. Department of Labor)
Percentage of Firms With Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now (© National Federation of Independent Business Research Foundation)
Number of Employees Hired by the Temporary-Help Industry (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)
Ratio of Involuntarily Part-time to All Part-time Workers (BLS)
Job Openings (BLS)**
Industrial Production (Federal Reserve Board)*
Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis)**

*Statistical imputation for the recent month

**Statistical imputation for two most recent months

The Conference Board publishes the Employment Trends Index monthly, at 10 a.m. ET on the Monday that follows each Friday release of the Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation report. The technical notes to this series are available on The Conference Board website: http://www.conference-board.org/data/eti.cfm.

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