The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) Increased in November

Labor Market Recovery Continues, But at a Slower Pace

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Dec 07, 2020, 10:00 ET

NEW YORK, Dec. 7, 2020 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) increased in November, the seventh consecutive monthly increase since May. The index now stands at 98.81, up from 98.32 (an upward revision) in October. However, the index is still down 10.2 percent from a year ago.

"The Employment Trends Index increased again in November, but the pace of improvement has moderated compared to previous months," said Gad Levanon, Head of The Conference Board Labor Markets Institute. "The index signals that the recovery of the labor market may be slowing further, or even come to a halt, throughout the winter. A rising number of COVID-19 cases, further potential restrictions on consumers' mobility, and uncertainty around continued government stimulus are risks to a sustained labor market recovery. People working in industries most impacted by restrictions, such as restaurants, travel, accommodation and out-of-home entertainment, will be the most affected over the coming months. As a result, the decline in the unemployment rate may pause during the winter before sharply dropping later in the year after the large-scale vaccination boosts the economy."

November's increase was driven by positive contributions from six of the eight components. From the largest positive contributor to the smallest, the components were: Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance; the Number of Employees Hired by the Temporary-Help Industry; Industrial Production; Percentage of Firms With Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now; Percentage of Respondents Who Say They Find "Jobs Hard to Get"; and Job Openings.

The Employment Trends Index aggregates eight labor market indicators, each of which has proven accurate in its own area. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out "noise" to show underlying trends more clearly.

The eight labor market indicators aggregated into the Employment Trends Index include:

Percentage of Respondents Who Say They Find "Jobs Hard to Get" (The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey^®)
Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance (U.S. Department of Labor)
Percentage of Firms With Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now (© National Federation of Independent Business Research Foundation)
Number of Employees Hired by the Temporary-Help Industry (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)
Ratio of Involuntarily Part-time to All Part-time Workers (BLS)
Job Openings (BLS)**
Industrial Production (Federal Reserve Board)*
Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis)**

*Statistical imputation for the recent month
**Statistical imputation for two most recent months

The Conference Board publishes the Employment Trends Index monthly, at 10 a.m. ET, on the Monday that follows each Friday release of the Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation report. The technical notes to this series are available on The Conference Board website: http://www.conference-board.org/data/eti.cfm.

About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers trusted insights for what's ahead. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.conference-board.org.

SOURCE The Conference Board