The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) Increased in March

US Labor Market Likely to See Solid Job Growth Ahead

NEW YORK, April 4, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) increased in March to 120.56, up from 118.90 in February 2022 (a downward revision).

"The Employment Trends Index rose again in March, signaling further solid job growth ahead in the second quarter of 2022," said Agron Nicaj, Associate Economist at The Conference Board. "Consistent months of growth in the ETI indicate that employment is growing, and the labor market is expanding. The labor market is continuing to add jobs, especially in in-person services and other industries that have yet to reach pre-pandemic levels of employment. We expect these industries, including accommodation and food services, to experience the greatest job gains in the coming months. We can expect jobs to return to pre-pandemic levels before the end of the year."

Nicaj added: "Recruitment and retention difficulties remain high, and the unemployment rate is expected to approach 3 percent by the end of the year, indicating severe labor shortages throughout 2022. The labor force participation rate is expected to grow slightly with rising wages potentially luring more workers to the job market, driven by ongoing labor shortages. During this tight labor market, job switchers are especially likely to reap the benefits of wage gains."

March's increase in the Employment Trends Index was driven by positive contributions from six of eight components. From the largest positive contributor to the smallest, these were: Percentage of Respondents Who Say They Find "Jobs Hard to Get"; Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance; Industrial Production; Job Openings; Number of Employees Hired by the Temporary-Help Industry; and Ratio of Involuntarily Part-time to All Part-time Workers.

The Employment Trends Index is a leading composite index for employment. When the index increases, employment is likely to increase as well, and vice versa. Turning points in the index indicate that a turning point in the number of jobs is about to occur in the coming months. The Employment Trends Index aggregates eight leading indicators of employment, each of which has proven accurate in its own area. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out "noise" to show underlying trends more clearly.

The eight leading indicators of employment aggregated into the Employment Trends Index include:

• Percentage of Respondents Who Say They Find "Jobs Hard to Get" (The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey^®)
• Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance (U.S. Department of Labor)
• Percentage of Firms With Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now (© National Federation of Independent Business Research Foundation)
• Number of Employees Hired by the Temporary-Help Industry (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)
• Ratio of Involuntarily Part-time to All Part-time Workers (BLS)
• Job Openings (BLS)**
• Industrial Production (Federal Reserve Board)*
• Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis)**

*Statistical imputation for the recent month
**Statistical imputation for two most recent months

The Conference Board publishes the Employment Trends Index monthly, at 10 a.m. ET, on the Monday that follows each Friday release of the Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation report. The technical notes to this series are available on The Conference Board website: http://www.conference-board.org/data/eti.cfm.

About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers trusted insights for what's ahead. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.conference-board.org.

SOURCE The Conference Board

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