The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) Declines

Index Has Declined in Three Out of the Last Four Months;

Weak Employment Growth Expected Through 2011

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Aug 08, 2011, 10:00 ET

NEW YORK, Aug. 8, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) decreased slightly in July to 100.6, down from June's revised figure of 100.9. The July figure is up 4 percent from a year ago.

Says Gad Levanon, Associate Director of Macroeconomic Research at The Conference Board: "The Employment Trends Index declined in three of the past four months, and is signaling employment growth of less than 100,000 per month through the end of 2011. Despite weak employment growth in recent months, GDP has been growing even slower in the first half of 2011. There is simply not enough growth in production to warrant stronger hiring."

This month's decrease in the ETI was driven by negative contributions from three out of the eight components. The weakening indicators include The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey® "Jobs Hard to Get," Percentage of Firms With Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now and Job Openings, which is a forecasted component.

The Employment Trends Index aggregates eight labor-market indicators, each of which has proven accurate in its own area. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called "noise" to show underlying trends more clearly.

The eight labor-market indicators aggregated into the Employment Trends Index include:

Percentage of Respondents Who Say They Find "Jobs Hard to Get" (The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey®)
Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance (U.S. Department of Labor)
Percentage of Firms With Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now (© National Federation of Independent Business Research Foundation)
Number of Employees Hired by the Temporary-Help Industry (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)
Part-Time Workers for Economic Reasons (BLS)
Job Openings (BLS)
Industrial Production (Federal Reserve Board)
Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis)

The Conference Board publishes the Employment Trends Index monthly, at 10 a.m. ET on the Monday that follows each Friday release of the Bureau of Labor Statistics employment situation report. The technical notes to this series are available on The Conference Board website: http://www.conference-board.org/data/eti.cfm.

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SOURCE The Conference Board