The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) Declined in November

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Dec 05, 2022, 10:00 ET

Robust Labor Market Expected to See Slower Job Gains in the Months Ahead

NOTE: Next month's release will incorporate annual revisions of standardization factors to the Employment Trends Index, which bring it up-to-date with revisions in the source data. These revisions do not change the cyclical properties of the index. The standardization factors, known as volatility adjustment factors, are done by calculating the standard deviation of the monthly percent change in each component. The updated period used for calculating the standardization factors is November 1973 to December 2021. The standardization factors are then used to construct the index from November 1973 to present. As a result, the revised index, in levels and month-on-month changes, will not be directly comparable to those issued prior to this annual revision. For more information, please visit our website at http://www.conference-board.org/data/eti.cfm

NEW YORK, Dec. 5, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) declined in November to 117.65, from a downwardly revised 118.74 in October 2022. The Employment Trends Index is a leading composite index for employment. When the index increases, employment is likely to grow as well, and vice versa. Turning points in the index indicate that a turning point in the number of jobs is about to occur in the coming months.

"The ETI decreased in November 2022 for the second consecutive month. While the Index remains at a high level, its downward trend signals slower job growth ahead," said Frank Steemers, Senior Economist at The Conference Board. "The labor market is currently still robust. However, the fourth consecutive decline in the number of temporary help services jobs—a component of the ETI and an important leading indicator for hiring—is a warning sign that job growth may slow going into 2023."

Steemers added: "The demand for workers is still resilient and wage growth continues to be elevated. With the number of employees quitting still high—and the labor supply still constrained—employers may continue to offer strong pay increases to their existing workers and new hires over the coming months. However, with the economy expected to slow further in 2023 amid the Federal Reserve's rapid interest rate hikes, we expect the US labor market to cool and possibly even record some monthly job losses. That said, labor shortages are unlikely to disappear altogether, with the unemployment rate projected to rise from the current 3.7 percent to a still-low 4.5 percent in 2023. Employers may still need to manage recruitment and retention difficulties, as well as rising labor costs, into the new year and beyond."

November's decrease in the Employment Trends Index was driven by negative contributions from six of eight components including: Initial Claims for Unemployment, Percentage of Firms With Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now, Industrial Production, Number of Employees Hired by the Temporary-Help Industry, Ratio of Involuntarily Part-time to All Part-time Workers, and Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales.

The Employment Trends Index aggregates eight leading indicators of employment, each of which has proven accurate in its own area. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out "noise" to show underlying trends more clearly.

The eight leading indicators of employment aggregated into the Employment Trends Index include:

Percentage of Respondents Who Say They Find "Jobs Hard to Get" (The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey^®)
Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance (U.S. Department of Labor)
Percentage of Firms With Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now (© National Federation of Independent Business Research Foundation)
Number of Employees Hired by the Temporary-Help Industry (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)
Ratio of Involuntarily Part-time to All Part-time Workers (BLS)
Job Openings (BLS)*
Industrial Production (Federal Reserve Board)*
Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis)**

*Statistical imputation for the recent month
**Statistical imputation for two most recent months

The Conference Board publishes the Employment Trends Index monthly, at 10 a.m. ET, on the Monday that follows each Friday release of the Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation report. The technical notes to this series are available on The Conference Board website: http://www.conference-board.org/data/eti.cfm.

About The Conference Board

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Employment Trends Index (ETI)™ 2022-2023 Publication Schedule
Index Release Date (10 AM ET)	Data for the Month
Monday, December 5 2022	November 2022
Monday, January 9 2023	December 2022
Monday, February 6	January 2023
Monday, March 13	February
Monday, April 10	March
Monday, May 8	April
Monday, June 5	May
Monday, July 10	June
Monday, August 7	July
Tuesday, September 5*	August
Monday, October 9	September
Monday, November 6	October
Monday, December 11	November
* Tuesday release due to holiday

© The Conference Board 2022. All data contained in this table are protected by United States and international copyright laws. The data displayed are provided for informational purposes only and may only be accessed, reviewed, and/or used in accordance with, and the permission of, The Conference Board consistent with a subscriber or license agreement and the Terms of Use displayed on our website at www.conference-board.org. The data and analysis contained herein may not be used, redistributed, published, or posted by any means without express written permission from The Conference Board.

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