Stronger Sales, Traffic Bolster Restaurant Performance Index in August

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Sep 28, 2012, 11:46 ET

Same-store sales rose for the 15th consecutive month; Restaurant operators are somewhat more optimistic about the economy

WASHINGTON, Sept. 28, 2012 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- Buoyed by stronger same-store sales and customer traffic levels, the National Restaurant Association's Restaurant Performance Index (RPI) posted a modest gain in August. The RPI – a monthly composite index that tracks the health of and outlook for the U.S. restaurant industry – stood at 100.6 in August, up 0.4 percent from July and the first increase in five months. August represented the tenth consecutive month that the RPI stood above 100, which signifies continued expansion in the index of key industry indicators.

"Growth in the RPI was driven largely by improving same-store sales and customer traffic results in August," said Hudson Riehle, senior vice president of the Research and Knowledge Group for the Association. "Six out of 10 restaurant operators reported positive same-store sales in August, while customer traffic readings bounced back from July's net decline."

"In contrast, the Expectations Index remained dampened compared to recent stronger levels, with restaurant operators retaining a cautious outlook for sales growth and the economy in the months ahead," Riehle added.

The Restaurant Performance Index is constructed so that the health of the restaurant industry is measured in relation to a steady-state level of 100. Index values above 100 indicate that key industry indicators are in a period of expansion, while index values below 100 represent a period of contraction for key industry indicators. The Index consists of two components – the Current Situation Index and the Expectations Index.

The Current Situation Index, which measures current trends in four industry indicators (same-store sales, traffic, labor and capital expenditures), stood at 100.6 in August – up 0.8 percent from July's level of 99.8. After dipping below 100 in July for the first time in nine months, the August reading represents a return to expansion in the index of current situation indicators.

Restaurant operators reported positive same-store sales for the 15^th consecutive month, with August results representing a solid improvement over the July performance. Sixty-one percent of restaurant operators reported a same-store sales gain between August 2011 and August 2012, up from 53 percent who reported positive sales in July. In comparison, 25 percent of operators reported lower same-store sales in August, down from 36 percent in July.

Restaurant operators also reported a net increase in customer traffic levels in August. Forty-seven percent of restaurant operators reported higher customer traffic levels between August 2011 and August 2012, up from 35 percent who reported positive traffic in July. In contrast, only 32 percent of operators reported lower customer traffic levels in August, down sharply from 46 percent in July.

Despite the uptick in sales and customer traffic, restaurant operators reported somewhat lower levels of capital spending. Forty-one percent of operators said they made a capital expenditure for equipment, expansion or remodeling during the last three months, down from 46 percent who reported similarly last month.

The Expectations Index, which measures restaurant operators' six-month outlook for four industry indicators (same-store sales, employees, capital expenditures and business conditions), stood at 100.7 in August – unchanged from July's level. Although August marked the 12^th consecutive month that the Expectations Index stood above 100, it remained nearly two index-points below the post-recession peak reached in March.

Restaurant operators remain generally optimistic that their sales levels will improve in the months ahead, as their sales outlook was essentially unchanged from last month. Forty percent of restaurant operators expect to have higher sales in six months (compared to the same period in the previous year), compared to 42 percent who reported similarly last month. Meanwhile, only 12 percent of restaurant operators expect their sales volume in six months to be lower than it was during the same period in the previous year, down slightly from 15 percent last month.

Restaurant operators are not as bullish about the direction of the overall economy, though their outlook improved somewhat from last month. Twenty-nine percent of restaurant operators said they expect economic conditions to improve in six months, up from 22 percent who reported similarly last month. Meanwhile, 20 percent of operators said they expect economic conditions to worsen in the next six months, while 51 percent think conditions will stay about the same.

Restaurant operators' outlook for capital spending dipped somewhat from recent months. Forty-four percent of restaurant operators plan to make a capital expenditure for equipment, expansion or remodeling in the next six months, down from 49 percent who reported similarly last month.

The RPI is based on the responses to the National Restaurant Association's Restaurant Industry Tracking Survey, which is fielded monthly among restaurant operators nationwide on a variety of indicators including sales, traffic, labor and capital expenditures. The full report and a video summary are available online at http://www.restaurant.org/research/economy/rpi.

The RPI is released on the last business day of each month, and a more detailed data and analysis can be found on Restaurant TrendMapper, the Association's subscription-based web site that provides detailed analysis of restaurant industry trends.

Founded in 1919, the National Restaurant Association is the leading business association for the restaurant industry, which comprises 970,000 restaurant and foodservice outlets and a workforce of nearly 13 million employees. We represent the industry in Washington, D.C., and advocate on its behalf. We operate the industry's largest trade show (NRA Show May 18-21, 2013, in Chicago); leading food safety training and certification program (ServSafe); unique career-building high school program (the NRAEF's ProStart, including the National ProStart Invitational April 19-21, 2013, in Baltimore, Md.); as well as the Kids LiveWell program promoting healthful kids' menu options. For more information, visit www.restaurant.org and find us on Twitter @WeRRestaurants, Facebook and YouTube.