Some Light Breaks Through Business Executives' Gloom on U.S. Economy, AICPA & CIMA Survey Finds

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Mar 09, 2023, 07:58 ET

Outlook on U.S. economy recovers from last quarter's 13-year low
Hiring picture remains sturdy despite recessionary fears
Profit and revenue expectations lift somewhat

NEW YORK, March 9, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- U.S. business executives still have grave concerns about the economy but have grown more optimistic about revenue and profit expectations and other key indicators for the coming year, according to the first-quarter AICPA & CIMA Economic Outlook Survey. The survey polls chief executive officers, chief financial officers, controllers and other certified public accountants in U.S. companies who hold executive and senior management accounting roles.

Only 23% of business executives expressed optimism about the U.S. economy's prospects over the next 12 months, That represents progress from last quarter, however, when only 12% felt that way – the measure's lowest level since early 2009. Inflation, rising interest rates and geopolitical concerns all continue to dampen the U.S. outlook. Ninety percent of survey takers said they were concerned about recessionary impacts, with 15% significantly so.

Still, many indicators are pointing up this quarter:

Business executives are expecting slight profit growth (0.6%) over the next 12 months, a switch from either negative or zero growth expectations over the past two quarters. Likewise, 12-month revenue growth projections are back on the rise, from anticipated 2.1% rate last quarter to 2.6%
Business executives who expressed optimism about their own organizations' prospects over the next 12 months increased from 35% to 47%, quarter over quarter
Most business executives (52%) now say they expect their companies to expand at least a bit over the next 12 months, up from 47% last quarter. Businesses with over a billion dollars in revenue led this category by a wide margin (68% expect expansion).

The U.S. hiring picture remains strong, although there are some signs of softening. Some 45 percent of executive say they have the right number of employees, up from 39 percent last quarter. Nine percent of business executives said they had too many employees, an increase of a single percentage point from last quarter.

Almost a third of business executives (32 percent) said they were taking steps to bring down staffing costs. Some 17 percent said they have instituted hiring freezes and ceased recruitment of open jobs. Other strategies, employed to a lesser extent, include layoffs, reduced shifts or hours of operation, and increased outsourcing.

"While hiring demands may be cooling a bit, we're not seeing widespread layoffs – most companies are looking to interim strategies to protect their workforce options. In fact, a third of business executives say they're looking to hire immediately, while 'availability of skilled personnel' continues to be a top concern from the survey." said Tom Hood, the AICPA & CIMA's executive vice president for business engagement and growth. "This illustrates the unique pressures companies have been under the past year, with so much uncertainty clouding financial modeling."

The AICPA survey is a forward-looking indicator that tracks hiring and business-related expectations for the next 12 months. In comparison, the U.S. Department of Labor's November employment report, scheduled for release tomorrow, looks back on the previous month's hiring trends.

Other key findings of the survey:

U.S. business executives' 12-month outlook on the global economy also improved, with those expressing pessimism dropping from 72% last quarter to 48% now.
Inflation was the top concern of business executives for the sixth straight quarter. "Availability of Skilled Personnel" and "Employee and Benefit Costs" flipped places and are now the No. 2 and 3 challenges, respectively.

Methodology

The first-quarter AICPA & CIMA Economic Outlook Survey was conducted from Feb. 7 and March 1, 2023 and included 438 qualified responses from CPAs who hold leadership positions, such as chief financial officer or controller, in their companies. The overall margin of error is less than 3 percentage points. A copy of the report can be found on aicpa.org.

About the Association of International Certified Professional Accountants, and AICPA & CIMA

The Association of International Certified Professional Accountants (the Association), representing AICPA & CIMA, advances the global accounting and finance profession through its work on behalf of 689,000 AICPA and CIMA members, students and engaged professionals in 196 countries and territories. Together, we are the worldwide leader on public and management accounting issues through advocacy, support for the CPA license and specialized credentials, professional education and thought leadership. We build trust by empowering our members and engaged professionals with the knowledge and opportunities to be leaders in broadening prosperity for a more inclusive, sustainable and resilient future.

The American Institute of CPAs (AICPA), the world's largest member association representing the CPA profession, sets ethical standards for its members and U.S. auditing standards for private companies, not-for-profit organizations, and federal, state and local governments. It also develops and grades the Uniform CPA Examination and builds the pipeline of future talent for the public accounting profession.

The Chartered Institute of Management Accountants (CIMA) is the world's leading and largest professional body of management accountants. CIMA works closely with employers and sponsors leading-edge research, constantly updating its professional qualification and professional experience requirements to ensure it remains the employer's choice when recruiting financially trained business leaders.

SOURCE AICPA & CIMA