Services PMI® at 54.4%; October 2022 Services ISM® Report On Business®

Business Activity Index at 55.7%; New Orders Index at 56.5%; Employment Index at 49.1%; Supplier Deliveries Index at 56.2%

TEMPE, Ariz., Nov. 3, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- Economic activity in the services sector grew in October for the 29th month in a row — with the Services PMI^® registering 54.4 percent — say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest Services ISM^® Report On Business^®.

The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., A.P.P., CFPM, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management^® (ISM^®) Services Business Survey Committee: "In October, the Services PMI^® registered 54.4 percent, 2.3 percentage points lower than September's reading of 56.7 percent. This is the lowest reading since May 2020, when the index registered 45.2 percent. The Business Activity Index registered 55.7 percent, a decrease of 3.4 percentage points compared to the reading of 59.1 percent in September. The New Orders Index figure of 56.5 percent is 4.1 percentage points lower than the September reading of 60.6 percent.

"The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 56.2 percent, 2.3 percentage points higher than the 53.9 percent reported in September. (Supplier Deliveries is the only ISM^® Report On Business^® index that is inversed; a reading of above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, which is typical as the economy improves and customer demand increases.)

"After five straight months of decreases, the Prices Index was up 2 percentage points in October, to 70.7 percent. Services businesses still continue to struggle to replenish their stocks, as the Inventories Index contracted for the fifth consecutive month; the reading of 47.2 percent is up 3.1 percentage points from September's figure of 44.1 percent. The Inventory Sentiment Index (46.4 percent, down 0.8 percentage point from September's reading of 47.2 percent) contracted for the third month in a row.

"According to the Services PMI^®, 16 industries reported growth. The composite index indicated growth for the 29th consecutive month after a two-month contraction in April and May 2020. Growth continues at a slower rate for the services sector, which has expanded for all but two of the last 153 months. The sector had a pullback in growth for the second consecutive month in October due to decreases in business activity, new orders and employment."

Nieves continues, "Supplier deliveries continued to slow, at a faster rate in October. Based on comments from Business Survey Committee respondents, growth rates and business levels have cooled. There are still challenges in hiring qualified workers, and due to uncertainty regarding economic conditions, some companies are holding off on backfilling open positions. Supply chain and logistical issues persist but are not as encumbering as they were earlier in the year." 

The 16 services industries reporting growth in October — listed in order — are: Mining; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Transportation & Warehousing; Accommodation & Food Services; Construction; Utilities; Other Services; Information; Retail Trade; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Educational Services; Finance & Insurance; Public Administration; Health Care & Social Assistance; and Wholesale Trade. The two industries reporting a decrease in the month of October are: Management of Companies & Support Services; and Real Estate, Rental & Leasing.

• "Despite the negative inflation news, higher gas prices and concerns of a recession, our restaurant sales have been resilient during what is typically a seasonal slump. We are positive to 2019 (pre-coronavirus pandemic), and traffic is down only about 4 percent, so it's recovering. Staffing and supply chain challenges are improving, (and we are) seeing some decline in key commodities." [Accommodation & Food Services]
• "Business remains tepid. We have a general concern that sales volumes are trending down as buyers communicate that they're planning to buy only what they need for immediate sales." [Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting]
• "Customers are starting to delay projects and/or entering smaller-scale scopes of work. We believe this is a continuation of an uncertain economic environment." [Construction]
• "There are supply chain challenges for some paper- and tech-related products." [Educational Services]
• "Shortages and delays stabilizing. Labor availability and patient volume continue to be a challenge." [Health Care & Social Assistance]
• "Electronic components lead times are becoming longer, pushing out almost a year. Not seeing much change in pricing based on inflation pressures at this point, but we expect to see changes after the first of the year. Business volume remains strong." [Other Services]
• "As we prepare for a recession, our stakeholders, clients and vendors are all tightening their belts and reducing new spend. We are focusing on strategic renewals and expanding only where necessary with our closest vendor partners for our most critical tech projects." [Professional, Scientific & Technical Services]
• "Prices seem to continue increasing for commodities, including plumbing, flooring materials, floor adhesives, door locks, and bedroom and bathroom doors. Delays in delivery have increased after leveling off in the middle of the year." [Real Estate, Rental & Leasing]
• "We are in the final preparations for a successful holiday, despite lower sales. Labor is more available this year, and supply chain delays seem caught up for now." [Retail Trade]
• "It has become more challenging to maintain our level of service, due to increased demand, extended supplier lead times and the hyper-competitive employment market." [Transportation & Warehousing]
• "We are experiencing a bullwhip of oversupply on some goods … while still desperately short on other goods. The market is recovering very inconsistently." [Wholesale Trade]

Services ISM^® Report On Business^® data is seasonally adjusted for the Business Activity, New Orders, Employment and Prices indexes. Manufacturing ISM^® Report On Business^® data is seasonally adjusted for New Orders, Production, Employment and Inventories indexes.
*Number of months moving in current direction.

Commodities Up in Price
Caustic Soda; Cheese (2); Computer Hardware; Diesel Fuel*; Electrical Components (21); Electronic Components (2); Food and Beverages (2); Fuel; Gasoline*; Labor (23); Paper (2); Steel Products (22); and Stretch Wrap.

Commodities Down in Price
Chicken; Diesel Fuel* (3); Gasoline* (3); Plastic; and Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) Products (2).

Commodities in Short Supply
Concrete; Electrical Components; Electronic Assemblies; Labor (15); Labor — Full-Time, Needles and Syringes (2); Paper (3); Semiconductors; Transformers (2); and Vehicles (4).

Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item. *Indicates both up and down in price.

In October, the Services PMI^® registered 54.4 percent, a 2.3-percentage point decrease compared to the September reading of 56.7 percent. The 12-month average is 58.2 percent, reflecting consistently strong growth in the services sector, which has expanded for 29 consecutive months. A reading above 50 percent indicates the services sector economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates it is generally contracting.

A Services PMI^® above 50.1 percent, over time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the October Services PMI^® indicates the overall economy has followed the same path as the services sector: expansion for 29 straight months following two months of contraction and a preceding period of 122 months of growth. Nieves says, "The past relationship between the Services PMI^® and the overall economy indicates that the Services PMI^® for October (54.4 percent) corresponds to a 1.5-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis."

ISM^®'s Business Activity Index registered 55.7 percent in October, a decrease of 3.4 percentage points from the reading of 59.1 percent in September, indicating growth for the 29th consecutive month. Comments from respondents include: "Customers slowing orders; holding off on building inventory" and "Catching up on delayed projects."

The 15 industries reporting an increase in business activity for the month of October — listed in order — are: Mining; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Construction; Information; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Educational Services; Transportation & Warehousing; Utilities; Accommodation & Food Services; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Other Services; Finance & Insurance; Retail Trade; Wholesale Trade; and Health Care & Social Assistance. The two industries reporting a decrease in business activity for the month of October are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; and Management of Companies & Support Services.

ISM^®'s New Orders Index registered 56.5 percent, down 4.1 percentage points from the September reading of 60.6 percent. New orders grew for the 29th consecutive month after two months of contraction and a preceding period of 128 months of expansion. Comments from respondents include: "New capital projects implemented" and "Higher due to end-of-year activity."

Thirteen industries reported growth of new orders in October, in the following order: Mining; Information; Other Services; Transportation & Warehousing; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Retail Trade; Accommodation & Food Services; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Construction; Finance & Insurance; Utilities; Educational Services; and Health Care & Social Assistance. The two industries reporting a decrease in new orders in October are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; and Wholesale Trade.

Employment activity in the services sector contracted in October after two consecutive months of growth. ISM^®'s Employment Index registered 49.1 percent, down 3.9 percentage points from the September reading of 53 percent. Comments from respondents include: "Unable to fill vacant positions with qualified applicants" and "Our company has tightened its hiring of new employees month over month due to uncertainty around the strength of the economy."

The 11 industries reporting an increase in employment in October — listed in order — are: Mining; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Accommodation & Food Services; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Retail Trade; Wholesale Trade; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Construction; Transportation & Warehousing; Utilities; and Public Administration. The six industries reporting a decrease in employment in October — listed in order — are: Management of Companies & Support Services; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Information; Educational Services; Finance & Insurance; and Health Care & Social Assistance.

The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 56.2 percent, up 2.3 percentage points from the 53.9 percent recorded in September. A reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, while a reading below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries. Comments from respondents include: "Lead times continue to increase and shipping is still hard to obtain, so deliveries are lagging" and "Still no improvement in lead times or delivery times."

The nine industries reporting slower deliveries in October — listed in order — are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Utilities; Other Services; Transportation & Warehousing; Public Administration; Educational Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Construction; and Information. The two industries reporting faster supplier deliveries for the month of October are: Wholesale Trade; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services. Seven industries reported no change in October.

The Inventories Index contracted in October for the fifth consecutive month after four straight months of growth preceded by an eight-month period of contraction. The reading of 47.2 percent was a 3.1-percentage point increase from the 44.1 percent reported in September. Of the total respondents in October, 32 percent indicated they do not have inventories or do not measure them. Comments from respondents include: "Inventory turn rates are moving faster" and "We are struggling to maintain inventory; our levels are lower due to product not hitting our docks as soon as we would like."

The nine industries reporting an increase in inventories in October — listed in order — are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Retail Trade; Transportation & Warehousing; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Mining; Finance & Insurance; Wholesale Trade; Construction; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services. The six industries reporting a decrease in inventories in October — listed in order — are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Information; Public Administration; Health Care & Social Assistance; Educational Services; and Utilities.

Prices paid by services organizations for materials and services increased in October for the 65th consecutive month, with the index registering 70.7 percent, 2 percentage points higher than the 68.7 percent recorded in September. The Prices Index continues to indicate movement toward equilibrium, with a fourth consecutive reading near or below 70 percent, following nine straight months of readings above 80 percent.

Seventeen services industries reported an increase in prices paid during the month of October, in the following order: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Information; Finance & Insurance; Health Care & Social Assistance; Mining; Utilities; Construction; Transportation & Warehousing; Educational Services; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Public Administration; Management of Companies & Support Services; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Other Services; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Accommodation & Food Services; and Retail Trade. The only industry reporting a decrease in prices paid is Wholesale Trade.

NOTE: Commodities reported as up in price and down in price are listed in the commodities section of this report.

The ISM^® Services Backlog of Orders Index grew in October for the 22nd consecutive month. The index registered 52.2 percent, 0.3 percentage point lower than the 52.5 registered in September. Of the total respondents in October, 41 percent indicated they do not measure backlog of orders. Respondent comments include: "Supply bottlenecks easing slightly" and "Still dealing with transportation delays/issues."

The eight industries reporting an increase in order backlogs in October — listed in order — are: Accommodation & Food Services; Finance & Insurance; Information; Educational Services; Mining; Other Services; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Health Care & Social Assistance. The four industries reporting a decrease in order backlogs in October are: Management of Companies & Support Services; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Wholesale Trade; and Retail Trade. Six industries reported no change in October.

Orders and requests for services and other non-manufacturing activities to be provided outside of the U.S. by domestically based companies contracted in October after eight consecutive months of growth. The New Export Orders Index registered 47.7 percent, a 17.4-percentage point decrease from the 65.1 percent reported in September. The decrease of 17.4 percentage points for the Exports Index is the largest drop since January 2022 (-15.6 percentage points), the previous all-time largest decrease. Prior to January 2022, the largest drop was in November 2008, during the Great Recession, when the index dropped 15.5 percentage points. Of the total respondents in October, 77 percent indicated they do not perform, or do not separately measure, orders for work outside of the U.S.

The eight industries reporting an increase in new export orders in October — listed in order — are: Construction; Mining; Accommodation & Food Services; Educational Services; Utilities; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Information; and Transportation & Warehousing. The four industries reporting a decrease in new export orders in October are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Other Services; and Wholesale Trade. Six industries indicated no change in new export orders in October.

The Imports Index grew in October for the second consecutive month after three previous months of contraction, registering 50.4 percent, down 0.9 percentage point from September's reading of 51.3 percent. Sixty-six percent of respondents reported that they do not use, or do not track the use of, imported materials.

The four industries reporting an increase in imports for the month of October are: Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Information; Utilities; and Health Care & Social Assistance. The three industries that reported a decrease in imports in October are: Other Services; Retail Trade; and Wholesale Trade. Eleven industries reported no change in imports in October.

The ISM^® Services Inventory Sentiment Index contracted in October for the third straight month and the 17th time in the last 19 months. The index registered 46.4 percent, a 0.8-percentage point decrease from September's figure of 47.2 percent. This reading indicates that respondents feel their inventories are too low when correlated to business activity levels.

The eight industries reporting sentiment that their inventories were too high in October — listed in order — are: Other Services; Wholesale Trade; Retail Trade; Finance & Insurance; Utilities; Construction; Health Care & Social Assistance; and Information. The seven industries reporting a feeling that their inventories were too low in October — listed in order — are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Educational Services; Mining; Accommodation & Food Services; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Transportation & Warehousing; and Public Administration.

DO NOT CONFUSE THIS NATIONAL REPORT with the various regional purchasing reports released across the country. The national report's information reflects the entire U.S., while the regional reports contain primarily regional data from their local vicinities. Also, the information in the regional reports is not used in calculating the results of the national report. The information compiled in this report is for the month of October 2022.

The data presented herein is obtained from a survey of supply executives in the services sector based on information they have collected within their respective organizations. ISM^® makes no representation, other than that stated within this release, regarding the individual company data collection procedures. The data should be compared to all other economic data sources when used in decision-making.

The Services ISM^® Report On Business^® (formerly the Non-Manufacturing ISM^® Report On Business^®) is based on data compiled from purchasing and supply executives nationwide. Membership of the Services Business Survey Committee (formerly Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee) is diversified by NAICS, based on each industry's contribution to gross domestic product (GDP). The Services Business Survey Committee responses are divided into the following NAICS code categories: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Mining; Utilities; Construction; Wholesale Trade; Retail Trade; Transportation & Warehousing; Information; Finance & Insurance; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; Educational Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Accommodation & Food Services; Public Administration; and Other Services (services such as Equipment & Machinery Repairing; Promoting or Administering Religious Activities; Grantmaking; Advocacy; and Providing Dry-Cleaning & Laundry Services, Personal Care Services, Death Care Services, Pet Care Services, Photofinishing Services, Temporary Parking Services, and Dating Services). The data are weighted based on each industry's contribution to GDP. According to the BEA estimates for 2020 GDP (released December 22, 2021), the six largest services sectors are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Government; Professional, Scientific, & Technical Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Information; and Finance & Insurance. Beginning in February 2020 with January 2020 data, computation of the indexes is accomplished utilizing unrounded numbers.

Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month. For each of the indicators measured (Business Activity, New Orders, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, Inventory Change, Inventory Sentiment, Imports, Prices, Employment and Supplier Deliveries), this report shows the percentage reporting each response and the diffusion index. Responses represent raw data and are never changed. Data is seasonally adjusted for Business Activity, New Orders, Prices and Employment. All seasonal adjustment factors are subject annually to relatively minor changes when conditions warrant them. The remaining indexes have not indicated significant seasonality.

The Services PMI^® is a composite index based on the diffusion indexes for four of the indicators with equal weights: Business Activity (seasonally adjusted), New Orders (seasonally adjusted), Employment (seasonally adjusted) and Supplier Deliveries. Diffusion indexes have the properties of leading indicators and are convenient summary measures showing the prevailing direction of change and the scope of change. An index reading above 50 percent indicates that the services economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally declining. Supplier Deliveries is an exception. A Supplier Deliveries Index above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries and below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries.

A Services PMI^® above 50.1 percent, over time, indicates that the overall economy, or gross domestic product (GDP), is generally expanding; below 50.1 percent, it is generally declining. The distance from 50 percent or 50.1 percent is indicative of the strength of the expansion or decline.

The Services ISM^® Report On Business^® survey is sent out to Services Business Survey Committee respondents the first part of each month. Respondents are asked to ONLY report on U.S. operations for the current month. ISM^® receives survey responses throughout most of any given month, with the majority of respondents generally waiting until late in the month to submit responses to give the most accurate picture of current business activity. ISM^® then compiles the report for release on the third business day of the following month.

The industries reporting growth, as indicated in the Services ISM^® Report On Business^® monthly report, are listed in the order of most growth to least growth. For the industries reporting contraction or decreases, those are listed in the order of the highest level of contraction/decrease to the least level of contraction/decrease.

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SOURCE Institute for Supply Management