Russia Oil and Gas Report Q4 2013

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Russia Oil and Gas Report Q4 2013

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BMI View: Russia may be pumping post-Soviet record levels of oil and is likely to continue to see a shortterm increase in both oil and gas production; however, we warn that a high level of investment will be required to maintain this. It also faces pressure to diversify its gas markets, in view of slower demand growth expected from its core market in Europe and growing competition from other global gas suppliers. There have been promises made to reform Russia's tax and regulatory system, upon which further development of the oil and gas sector hinges. The realisation of Russia's oil and gas potential lies in unlocking the political gridlock that is standing in the way of much needed tax and licensing reforms which would maximise the country's full oil and gas potential.

The main trends and developments we highlight for Russia's oil & gas sector are:

- Russian oil production reached a post-soviet high of 10.4mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2012, exceeding the 10.34mn b/d targeted by the economy ministry for 2012. In the short-term, BMI expects oil production to trend slightly upwards as it ramps up production capacity from the remaining Soviet-era fields, while new projects manage to just replace production lost from ageing fields. Between 2013 and 2017, we forecast Russian production to remain relatively flat at around 10.4-10.5mn b/d. However, unless changes to its existing tax regime takes place that will encourage brownfield investments in the near future, Russia's oil fortunes could be set for a slow decline in the long term. We believe output will begin to decline from 2017 and fall to 10.1mn b/d by 2022. That said, any positive fiscal and regulatory changes that allow for greater market access could have a significantly positive effect on its long-term production outlook, given Russia's large below-ground potential.BMI Industry View 7SWOT 9Industry Forecast 11Oil And Gas Reserves 11Table: Russia Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2011-2016 11Table: Russia Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2017-2022 12Table: Comparison Of Deals Netted With Rosneft 17Oil Supply And Demand 20Table: Russia Oil Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2011-2016 20Table: Russia Oil Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2017-2022 21Gas Supply And Demand 28Table: Russia Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2011-2016 28Table: Russia Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2017-2022 29LNG 35Refining And Oil Products Trade 40Table: Russia Refining - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2016 40Table: Russia Refining - Long-Term Forecasts, 2017-2022 40Revenues/Import Costs 42Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario 42Industry Risk Reward Ratings 43CEE - Risk/Reward Ratings 43Table: Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Ratings 44Caspian Retains Lead In Upstream Ratings 45Table: Upstream Risk/Reward Rating 45Russian Trouble Persists 47Regional Minnows Breaking In 49Downstream Stabilisation 49Table: CEE Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings 49Russia Risk/Reward Ratings 53Russia Upstream Rating - Overview 53Russia Upstream Rating - Rewards 53Russia Upstream Rating - Risks 53Russia Downstream Rating - Overview 53Market Overview 55Russia Energy Market Overview 55Overview/ State Role 58Licensing And Regulation 60Government Policy 63Table: Changes In MET Rates (RUB Per Mcm) 66International Energy Relations 69Gas Transit And Marketing 75Oil Transit 83Oil & Gas Infrastructure 86Oil Refineries 86Table: Downstream Projects - Russia 86Oil Terminals/Ports 92Oil Pipelines 93LNG Liquefaction Terminals 96Gas Pipelines 100Others 105Competitive Landscape 107Executive Summary 107Table: Key Domestic And Foreign Companies In The Russian Oil & Gas Sector 108Table: Key Upstream Players 109Table: Key Downstream Players 109Company Profile 110Gazprom 110Gazprom Neft 116Rosneft/TNK-BP 121Lukoil 128Tatneft 133Total 136Imperial Energy/ONGC 139Novatek 142Russneft 145Other Summaries 148Regional Overview 155Europe Energy Overview 155A Dependent Relationship 157Looking For A Break Up 159Central Asia: Beneficiaries Of Europe's Russian Fatigue 161Moving From Pipeline To LNG 162Russia Strikes Back 163Eastern Europe: Black Sea Gold Rush 164Shale Gas Showdown 165Global Industry Overview 167Global Energy Market Overview 167Table: BMI's Oil Price Forecasts & Bloomberg Analyst Consensus, Average Price (US$/bbl) 168Table: Global Oil Demand Forecasts 175Industry Trend Analysis 177Growing Implementation Base 178Developed Drive 180Appendix 181Central And Eastern Europe - Regional Appendix 181Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 ('000b/d) 181Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d) 182Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 ('000b/d) 182Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d) 183Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 ('000b/d) 184Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d) 184Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) 185Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) 186Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2016 (bcm) 186Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) 187Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 (bcm) 188Table: Net LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) 188Glossary 189Table: Glossary Of Terms 189Methodology 191Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 191Ratings Overview 191Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Risk Reward Ratings - Structure 192Indicators 192Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Business Environment Upstream Ratings - Methodology 192Oil & Gas Forecasts Methodology 194Energy Industry 194Cross checks 195Sources 195

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