Roboshuttles: A Promising Yet Challenging Mobility Solution, Finds New IDTechEx Report

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Jul 25, 2024, 02:45 ET

BOSTON, July 25, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- Roboshuttles are small, fully electric, and operate at Level 4 autonomy, making them an ideal last-mile solution. They were once highly anticipated in the autonomous driving industry as a promising mobility solution, and at one point, over 25 companies were competing in this space. However, IDTechEx has observed a yearly decline in the number of active companies from 2020 to 2024, and the industry has not advanced to the large-scale commercial testing phases as hoped. This is one of the key findings of the new IDTechEx report, "Roboshuttles and Autonomous Buses 2024-2044: Technologies, Trends, Forecasts".

Number of active roboshuttle companies. Source: IDTechEx

The number of players continues to decline

The number of companies involved in the roboshuttle market has decreased from over 25 to just 12 within three years - a sharp decline of more than 50% since 2020. Data available before 2023 shows that most companies in this sector were either conducting small-scale trials or were still at the conceptual stage, with nobody close to full commercial deployment. Even those who garnered substantial interest often struggled to progress from small to larger trials. In 2023, these larger trials, which IDTechEx anticipates would be the final step before commercialization, proved to be a significant hurdle. The primary reasons for the market contraction include inadequate funding, which prevented many companies from advancing beyond small-scale tests, and a lack of public interest, which is crucial for supporting a viable business case for this transportation mode. Consequently, many companies have exited the market, unable to overcome these challenges and secure the necessary resources for larger trials.

Several notable examples illustrate the challenges faced in the roboshuttle market. Navya, once a leader in the industry, faced financial and multifaceted issues, leading to its joint acquisition by Gaussin and Macnica and the formation of GAMA. Macnica is expected to fully acquire GAMA, with plans to establish their business model in Japanese mobility markets. ZF has delegated the manufacturing, sales, and operations of its roboshuttles to partners Oceaneering and Beep, ceasing internal development and focusing on supplying the necessary software and hardware for autonomous driving. Cruise suspended its commercial service following a robotaxi incident in October 2023 that resulted in serious injuries and led to the revocation of its autonomous vehicle testing license, halting its roboshuttle project. May Mobility has shifted its business model from using Polaris GEM shuttles to leveraging Toyota Sienna for its robotaxi services. Lastly, Coast and IAV's HEAT project has not announced any shuttle-related business initiatives over the past two years, instead redirecting their focus towards autonomous tractors for port logistics. The primary challenge facing the roboshuttle industry lies in the difficulty of finding practical commercial applications. This leads to a number of issues including financial difficulties, market consolidation, business model adjustments, safety and regulatory concerns, changes in market positioning, and project redirection.

Roboshuttles still need to prove commercial viability

Roboshuttles have always been envisioned as a futuristic concept, aiming to be small, shared vehicles that operate more flexibly than buses and more economically than taxis. This dual expectation has led to an unclear definition of their use cases, facing challenges similar to those of operating robotaxis and autonomous buses. These challenges include navigating complex urban environments and optimizing routes to increase usage rates. The hope is that overcoming these challenges will provide a highly used, high-revenue service, with a lower total cost of ownership (TCO) than a bus.

Initially, the industry pictured roboshuttles providing a variety of dynamic routes within cities. However, it has become difficult to find enough scenarios that require these characteristics. Most current test cases are in closed or semi-closed environments, such as the Park Shuttle service provided by QCraft in Beijing, where the roboshuttles can provide public transportation. Public transportation and mobility as a service (MaaS) were considered key use cases for roboshuttles in the early days. However, robotaxis are now entering high levels of technical maturity and commercial deployment, which could potentially fulfill this market need.

Given all the challenges faced by roboshuttles, such as changing use case scenarios, and competition from robotaxis, IDTechEx believes that the commercialization of roboshuttles is possible, but still an uphill battle. To get from where the industry is today to full commercial deployments will require efforts in infrastructure development, transportation system integration, and regulatory support. They need to be incorporated into urban transit systems to fulfill their role as dynamic dispatchers.

Against the odds: Some roboshuttle unicorns are still securing open road-testing approvals worldwide

Despite the overall downturn and all the challenges faced, some players achieved significant milestones between 2022 and 2024. In August 2023, WeRide received the M1 and T1 licenses from Singapore's Land Transport Authority (LTA), allowing their Robobus to undergo large-scale public road tests. By July 2024, WeRide launched Robobus shuttle services in Sentosa, marking Singapore's first publicly accessible L4 autonomous Robobus route, and the industry's first truly commercialized Roboshuttle operation. Additionally, in May 2024, WeRide successfully operated a shuttle service during the French Open, and China's QCraft is conducting open tests in 10 cities across mainland China. Pix Moving is deploying 100 roboshuttles for testing in 16 cities worldwide, leveraging its production line to support these trials. These achievements point in the direction of early commercialization of roboshuttles, namely providing services in limited areas with high-quality infrastructure, highly controlled access, and short-distance journeys.

The commercial breakthroughs of leading players show some government support for on-road vehicle testing. However, with the development of robotaxis and other on-demand mobility services, the uniqueness and value of roboshuttles appears to be diminishing. The expectation of recouping costs through fare revenues is also becoming unrealistic in the short term. IDTechEx's report provides insights into early commercialization, suggesting that achieving sustainable progress will rely on the continuous and additional value brought by roboshuttle services (e.g. addressing commuting gaps within regional areas) to attract investment from governments and customers. IDTechEx believes that during the early commercialization process, companies should focus on vehicle delivery and maintenance services to secure their hard-won market share.

IDTechEx's report, "Roboshuttles and Autonomous Buses 2024-2044: Technologies, Trends, Forecasts", provides a comprehensive analysis of the sector, contextualizing the current roboshuttle market with historical sales data from 2019 onwards and offering regional insights across China, Europe, the USA, and the rest of the world. It identifies key challenges and opportunities for the roboshuttle industry, making predictions about when commercial deployment can be expected. The high-fidelity analysis of each market informs IDTechEx's 20-year forecasts, offering critical guidance for stakeholders navigating this evolving landscape.

To find out more about this report, including downloadable sample pages, please visit www.IDTechEx.com/AutonomousBuses.

For the full portfolio of autonomy market research available from IDTechEx, please see www.IDTechEx.com/Research/Autonomy.

About IDTechEx

IDTechEx provides trusted independent research on emerging technologies and their markets. Since 1999, we have been helping our clients to understand new technologies, their supply chains, market requirements, opportunities and forecasts. For more information, contact [email protected] or visit www.IDTechEx.com.

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