RGE Analysts Anticipate ECB's 'Surprise' Rate Cut

LONDON and NEW YORK, Nov. 8, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- Roubini Global Economics (RGE), the independent, global macroeconomics research firm founded by noted economist Nouriel Roubini, took an out-of-consensus position that the ECB would cut rates by 25 basis points at its November 7 policy meeting—a move that the central bank subsequently made, much to the market's surprise. The accuracy of our latest ECB call highlights the value, independence and depth of RGE's research.

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"This year, we correctly predicted that the Bank of Japan would surprise markets in April, the Fed would not taper in September and the ECB would cut rates in November. These three major out-of-consensus calls demonstrate how we help improve our clients' performance," said Roubini.

RGE has long expressed the view that the ECB had fallen far behind the curve in its response to the eurozone's grave economic challenges. Earlier this year, we offered a detailed analysis of the recession and credit crunch facing the region, proving a roadmap for further easing from the ECB. (See "Belated White Knight: ECB Policy Options for the EZ Recession and Credit Crunch:" http://www.roubini.com/analysis/184517.)

Following discussions with ECB policy makers, Roubini and Christian Odendahl published a report in October arguing that the bank would have to pursue rate cuts (among other measures) in the face of falling inflation and a soaring euro (http://www.roubini.com/analysis/186107). Brunello Rosa followed up with a note on the likelihood of an ECB rate cut in November and its implications for the bond market (http://www.roubini.com/forum#thought.1383244416022). In addition, Odendahl offered a pre-meeting note several days before the ECB's decision, reiterating our call for a rate cut (http://www.roubini.com/forum#thought.1383334869106).

RGE's views are informed by discussions with senior policy makers and refined through systematic, quantitative analysis of the factors that drive policy, markets and the real economy. Our unique degree of access is a crucial part of the service RGE provides its clients. If you would like to receive more information or trial our services, please visit www.Roubini.com

About Roubini Global Economics
RGE is an independent, global macroeconomic strategy research firm founded in 2004 by renowned economist Nouriel Roubini. RGE research translates global economic signals into practical macro-strategy insight for a wide range of financial and policy professionals. Our approach broadens our clients' understanding of global economies and markets by illustrating vulnerabilities and risks, giving them constructive frameworks for clarity and helping them to make more informed decisions. RGE is headquartered in New York with an office in London.

Contact
Please email [email protected] or call +1(212) 645-0010 with inquiries.

SOURCE Roubini Global Economics

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