Redfin Report: Migration Trends Reach Record High as 26% of Home Searchers Look to Change Metros
Boston tops list of U.S. migration destinations ahead of more affordable inland metros
SEATTLE, Oct. 18, 2019 /PRNewswire/ -- (NASDAQ: RDFN) — Twenty-six percent of home searchers looked to move to another metro area in the third quarter of 2019, up from 25 percent the year before, according to a new report from Redfin (www.redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate brokerage. This is a new all-time high for the national share of home-searchers looking to relocate, likely driven by those leaving expensive metros in search of more affordable homes.
The latest migration analysis is based on a sample of more than 1 million Redfin.com users who searched for homes across 87 metro areas from July through September.
Moving In — Metros with the Highest Net Inflow of Redfin Users
After two quarters at the top of our list of metro areas with the highest net inflow of Redfin users, Phoenix fell to number three in the rankings in the third quarter, passed by Boston at number one and Sacramento at number two. A net inflow means more people are looking to move in than leave, while a net outflow means there are more people looking to leave than people looking to move in.
Seventeen percent of homebuyers searching in the Boston metro area were looking from other metro areas in the third quarter, up from both a year earlier (12.0%) and the second quarter (14.1%). New York continues to be the top origin city for people looking to move to Boston, and Boston is the top destination for people looking to leave New York.
"There is a sense here in New York that the sky has been falling for our housing market all year," said Redfin New York market manager Nick Boniakowski. "People fleeing NYC aren't looking for a rural life, they are fleeing the high costs. Boston presents a slightly more accessible cost of living, while still providing urban quality of life that many desire today. Boston is appealing because it's close and there are similar employment opportunities."
Table: Top 10 Metros by Net Inflow of Users and Their Top Origins |
||||||||
Rank |
Metro* |
Net Inflow 2019 Q3† |
Net Inflow 2018 Q3 |
Portion of Searches from Users Outside the Metro 2019 Q3 |
Portion of Searches from Users Outside the Metro 2018 Q3 |
Top Origin |
Top Out-of-State Origin |
|
1 |
Boston, MA |
6,985 |
1,437 |
17.2% |
12% |
New York, NY |
New York, NY |
|
2 |
Sacramento, CA |
6,896 |
7,043 |
43.4% |
42.5% |
San Francisco, CA |
Reno, NV |
|
3 |
Phoenix, AZ |
6,182 |
5,235 |
31.6% |
32.4% |
Los Angeles, CA |
Los Angeles, CA |
|
4 |
Las Vegas, NV |
5,938 |
2,371 |
44.8% |
40.7% |
Los Angeles, CA |
Los Angeles, CA |
|
5 |
Atlanta, GA |
5,827 |
5,466 |
26.4% |
26.3% |
New York, NY |
New York, NY |
|
6 |
Austin, TX |
4,767 |
3,016 |
32% |
27.6% |
San Francisco, CA |
San Francisco, CA |
|
7 |
Dallas, TX |
3,475 |
2,733 |
23.5% |
22.5% |
Los Angeles, CA |
Los Angeles, CA |
|
8 |
Tampa, FL |
3,218 |
2,807 |
52.7% |
51.1% |
Orlando, FL |
New York, NY |
|
9 |
San Diego, CA |
3,043 |
3,200 |
23.2% |
24.7% |
Los Angeles, CA |
Seattle, WA |
|
10 |
Charlotte, NC |
2,848 |
1,977 |
40% |
37.3% |
New York, NY |
New York, NY |
|
*Combined statistical areas with at least 500 users in Q3 2019 †Negative values indicate a net outflow; among the one million users sampled for this analysis only |
||||||||
Boston's rise to the top of the migration list is unusual, since most of the top destinations in recent years have been more affordable metro areas. However, relative to New York City, Boston's lower sales taxes, income taxes, and property taxes are likely a big factor driving people to make the move between the two cities. Six of the top ten migration destinations have median prices below the national median, and only San Diego has a higher median price than Boston.
The second quarter was the first time since Redfin began tracking migration data that Boston has been in the top 10 migration destinations. It debuted in the second quarter at number nine on the list before shooting all the way up to number one in the third quarter. Most of the interest in Boston continues to come from New York. Boston's lower sales, income, and property taxes are likely a big factor driving people to move there from New York.
Moving Out — Metros with the Highest Net Outflow of Redfin Users
The list of metros people most-often looked to leave was once again topped by New York, San Francisco, Los Angeles and Washington, D.C. in the third quarter. Net outflow is defined as the number of people looking to leave the metro minus the number of people looking to move to the metro.
"Homebuyers are leaving expensive metros for affordable metros and as a result there are fewer and fewer homes for sale in more affordable parts of the country," said Redfin chief economist Daryl Fairweather. "In San Francisco, for example, inventory has been rising because there aren't many San Franciscans who can afford the high prices. San Franciscans are moving to Sacramento where homes are much more affordable, and that, combined with a lack of new listings, has caused inventory to decline in Sacramento."
Table: Top 10 Metros by Net Outflow of Users and Their Top Destinations |
||||||||
Rank |
Metro* |
Net Outflow 2019 Q3† |
Net Outflow 2018 Q3 |
Portion of Local Users Searching Elsewhere 2019 Q3 |
Portion of Local Users Searching Elsewhere 2018 Q3 |
Top Destination |
Top Out-of-State Destination |
|
1 |
New York, NY |
35,120 |
23,504 |
39.4% |
35.2% |
Boston, MA |
Boston, MA |
|
2 |
San Francisco, CA |
26,988 |
27,626 |
20.6% |
21.4% |
Sacramento, CA |
Seattle, WA |
|
3 |
Los Angeles, CA |
17,176 |
14,127 |
16.1% |
15.7% |
San Diego, CA |
Las Vegas, NV |
|
4 |
Washington, DC |
8,681 |
6,478 |
11.6% |
10.3% |
Salisbury, MD |
Salisbury, MD |
|
5 |
Chicago, IL |
3,974 |
2,967 |
10.2% |
9% |
Phoenix, AZ |
Phoenix, AZ |
|
6 |
Denver, CO |
3,241 |
3,300 |
23% |
23.9% |
Fort Collins, CO |
Seattle, WA |
|
7 |
Hartford, CT |
1,410 |
1,502 |
70.8% |
78.4% |
Boston, MA |
Boston, MA |
|
8 |
Seattle, WA |
1,336 |
-1,583 |
11.2% |
10.4% |
Bellingham, WA |
Portland, OR |
|
9 |
Milwaukee, WI |
1,239 |
895 |
39.4% |
40% |
Chicago, IL |
Chicago, IL |
|
10 |
Houston, TX |
836 |
572 |
25.7% |
25.5% |
Austin, TX |
Los Angeles, CA |
|
*Combined statistical areas with at least 500 users in Q3 2019 †Among the one million users sampled for this analysis only |
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To read the full report, including additional data and an interactive migration map, please visit: https://www.redfin.com/blog/q3-2019-housing-migration-report.
About Redfin
Redfin (www.redfin.com) is a technology-powered real estate brokerage, combining its own full-service agents with modern technology to redefine real estate in the consumer's favor. Founded by software engineers, Redfin has the country's #1 brokerage website and offers a host of online tools to consumers, including the Redfin Estimate, the automated home-value estimate with the industry's lowest published error rate for listed homes. Homebuyers and sellers enjoy a full-service, technology-powered experience from Redfin real estate agents, while saving thousands in commissions. Redfin serves more than 85 major metro areas across the U.S. and Canada. The company has closed more than $85 billion in home sales.
For more information or to contact a local Redfin real estate agent, visit www.redfin.com. To learn about housing market trends and download data, visit the Redfin Data Center. To be added to Redfin's press release distribution list, subscribe here. To view Redfin's press center, click here.
SOURCE Redfin
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