Realtor.com® Forecasts the 2023 Top Housing Markets

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Dec 07, 2022, 06:00 ET

Hartford-West Hartford, Conn., El Paso, Texas, and Louisville, Ky. take top spots in annual ranking of areas poised for highest home price appreciation and sales growth

SANTA CLARA, Calif., Dec. 7, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- With affordability on home buyers' minds as interest rates continue to increase and outsized price tags have become the pandemic-born norm, Realtor.com^® offers hope – and helpful information – for buyers with its 2023 Top Housing Markets forecast. These markets are not only poised to see the strongest combined growth in home sales and listing prices in the coming year, but up to this point they have seen lower price increases, a relatively smaller affordability crunch than other markets across the U.S.

Mainly concentrated in mid-size markets east of the Mississippi, with local industries tied to manufacturing, education, healthcare and government, this year's top 10, in rank order, are Hartford-West Hartford, Conn., El Paso, Texas, Louisville, Ky., Worcester, Mass., Buffalo-Cheektowaga N.Y., Augusta-Richmond County, Ga., Grand Rapids-Wyoming, Mich., Columbia, S.C., Chattanooga, Tenn., and Toledo, Ohio. (See below for the full ranking of the 100 largest U.S. markets.)

Home sales across the top 10 markets are forecasted to grow by 5.2% year-over-year in 2022, whereas the national homes sale projection is for declining sales (-14.1%). Additionally, average home prices in the top 10 are expected to increase 7.3% – compared to 5.4% for the U.S. as a whole.

At a time when housing costs are a concern for many, these areas offer relative affordability, having experienced less of a price surge than other extremely hot, pandemic-era markets. They also have a greater share of homeowners who own their homes outright, without a mortgage, giving more residents equity to build on. In the top 10 markets, about 23% of housing inventory is affordable at the median income level, compared to just 17% of affordable homes nationally. Better affordability offers some insulation from the impact of rising mortgage rates.

"As many households keep a close watch on their spending, we expect these top housing markets to be in relatively high demand," says Realtor.com^® Chief Economist Danielle Hale. "We've seen lower price increases, more general affordability and more use of government-backed mortgage products for veterans, first-time and minority buyers in these top markets, providing opportunities for all home buyers to stretch their homebuying dollars. Many of these areas flew under the radar in the pandemic frenzy, and are now well-positioned to bubble up with solid job prospects without the big-city price tag.

Top Markets Sidestepped Steep Prices of 2022
This year's top 10 housing markets didn't get as caught up in the wild buying frenzy – and price increases – of 2022 as other areas. Sale prices in the 12 months ending August 2022 increased by 10.5% on a year-over-year basis, compared to a growth rate of 12.6% for all 100 largest metros. The top markets have also seen less of a dip in sales in recent months, with sales declining by 9.1% year-over-year, compared to an average decline of 12.3% for all 100 metro areas.

"Made in America" Mid-Sized Metros Poised to Bubble Up
Representing a shift from remote-work and tech-industry influenced home buying, this year's top markets have a renewed focus on domestic industry and trade. The pandemic exposed an achilles heel of the far-flung supply chains that had become the norm, namely, that logistics can be disrupted by a wide array of events. This has renewed corporate, government, and consumer focus in these markets where "Made in America" happens.On average, these mid-sized metros employ a higher proportion of workers in manufacturing, government, education and healthcare jobs relative to the 100 largest US metros, while jobs in tech, professional services, information technology and leisure/hospitality are less common in these areas. Having largely avoided the pandemic housing boom that we saw in other markets, home buyers in the top markets can find solid job prospects and affordable housing options.

Attractive to Out-Of-Town Buyers
Almost half of the buyers looking at the top 10 markets are from areas outside those states. For example, in Hartford, Conn., with a median price of $375,000 in October 2022, homebuyers from New York, Boston and Washington, DC, were leading the wave of out-of-state views in the third quarter of 2022, finding a significant value proposition compared not only to the high price of houses in New York City ($670,000), but also the national median ($425,000). With remote work opportunities still robust, and affordability top of mind, these markets will continue to draw buyers from out of state.

Buyers Take Advantage of Government-Backed Loans
Home sales in the top 10 metros also tend to leverage more government-backed mortgage products such as VA loans and FHA loans. Between Jan.-Aug. 2022, the share of mortgaged-sales with a VA loan was 9.4% in the top 10 markets vs. 7.5% among all the 100 markets reviewed. These types of loans help buyers safely enter the market with lower down payments and often slightly lower mortgage rates.

Realtor.com^® 2023 Top Housing Markets

1. Hartford-West Hartford et al, Conn.
November 2022 median home price: $372,000
Forecasted 2023 home sales change: +6.5%
Forecasted 2023 home price change: +8.5%
Forecasted 2023 combined sales and price change: +15.0%

2. El Paso, Texas
November 2022 median home price: $291,000
Forecasted 2023 home sales change: +8.9%
Forecasted 2023 home price change: +5.4%
Forecasted 2023 combined sales and price change: +14.3%

3. Louisville et al, Ky-Ind.
November 2022 median home price: $290,000
Forecasted 2023 home sales change: +5.2%
Forecasted 2023 home price change: +8.4%
Forecasted 2023 combined sales and price change: +13.6%

4. Worcester, Mass.-Conn.
November 2022 median home price: $447,000
Forecasted 2023 home sales change: +2.5%
Forecasted 2023 home price change: +10.6%
Forecasted 2023 combined sales and price change: +13.1%

5. Buffalo-Cheektowaga et al, N.Y.
November 2022 median home price: $240,000
Forecasted 2023 home sales change: +6.3%
Forecasted 2023 home price change: +6.0%
Forecasted 2023 combined sales and price change: +12.3%

6. Augusta-Richmond County, Ga.-S.C.
November 2022 median home price: $319,000
Forecasted 2023 home sales change: +6.2%
Forecasted 2023 home price change: +5.7%
Forecasted 2023 combined sales and price change: +11.9%

7. Grand Rapids-Wy., Mich.
November 2022 median home price: $358,000
Forecasted 2023 home sales change: +1.6%
Forecasted 2023 home price change: +10.0%
Forecasted 2023 combined sales and price change: +11.6%

8. Columbia, S.C.
November 2022 median home price: $300,000
Forecasted 2023 home sales change: +7.7%
Forecasted 2023 home price change: +3.6%
Forecasted 2023 combined sales and price change: +11.3%

9. Chattanooga, Tenn.-Ga.
November 2022 median home price: $397,000
Forecasted 2023 home sales change: +2.9%
Forecasted 2023 home price change: +8.2%
Forecasted 2023 combined sales and price change: +11.1%

10. Toledo, Ohio
November 2022 median home price: $161,000
Forecasted 2023 home sales change: +4.2%
Forecasted 2023 home price change: +6.7%
Forecasted 2023 combined sales and price change: +10.9%

Realtor.com^® 2023 Housing Forecast – 100 Largest U.S. Metros (Ranked)

Rank*	Metro	Combined Sales & Price Change (% Y/Y)	Sales Change (% Y/Y)	Price Change (% Y/Y)
1	Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, Conn.	15.0 %	6.5 %	8.5 %
2	El Paso, Texas	14.3 %	8.9 %	5.4 %
3	Louisville/Jefferson County, Ky.-Ind.	13.6 %	5.2 %	8.4 %
4	Worcester, Mass.-Conn.	13.1 %	2.5 %	10.6 %
5	Buffalo-Cheektowaga-Niagara Falls, N.Y.	12.3 %	6.3 %	6.0 %
6	Augusta-Richmond County, Ga.-S.C.	11.9 %	6.2 %	5.7 %
7	Grand Rapids-Wyoming, Mich	11.6 %	1.6 %	10.0 %
8	Columbia, S.C.	11.3 %	7.7 %	3.6 %
9	Chattanooga, Tenn.-Ga.	11.1 %	2.9 %	8.2 %
10	Toledo, Ohio	10.9 %	4.2 %	6.7 %
11	Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, Ark.	10.8 %	6.2 %	4.6 %
12	Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, Md.	10.4 %	4.9 %	5.5 %
13	Des Moines-West Des Moines, Iowa	10.4 %	4.1 %	6.3 %
14	Columbus, Ohio	9.6 %	4.6 %	5.0 %
15	Pittsburgh, Pa.	9.6 %	4.2 %	5.4 %
16	Springfield, Mass.	9.6 %	0.7 %	8.9 %
17	Omaha-Council Bluffs, Neb.-Iowa	9.5 %	4.7 %	4.8 %
18	Memphis, Tenn.-Miss.-Ark.	9.4 %	2.5 %	6.9 %
19	Cincinnati, Ohio-Ky.-Ind.	9.1 %	3.0 %	6.1 %
20	Kansas City, Mo.-Kan.	9.1 %	1.9 %	7.2 %
21	Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, Va.-N.C.	9.0 %	3.9 %	5.1 %
22	Boston-Cambridge-Newton, Mass.-N.H.	8.9 %	-0.6 %	9.5 %
23	Dayton-Kettering, Ohio	8.4 %	2.8 %	5.6 %
24	Greensboro-High Point, N.C.	8.4 %	2.2 %	6.2 %
25	Winston-Salem, N.C.	8.2 %	2.4 %	5.8 %
26	Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, Wis.	8.1 %	0.4 %	7.7 %
27	Harrisburg-Carlisle, Pa.	7.7 %	4.7 %	3.0 %
28	Albany-Schenectady-Troy, N.Y.	7.7 %	3.0 %	4.7 %
29	Lansing-East Lansing, Mich	7.5 %	3.1 %	4.4 %
30	Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, Texas	7.4 %	2.9 %	4.5 %
31	San Antonio-New Braunfels, Texas	7.1 %	2.5 %	4.6 %
32	Cleveland-Elyria, Ohio	7.0 %	2.7 %	4.3 %
33	Syracuse, N.Y.	7.0 %	0.9 %	6.1 %
34	Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, Mich	6.9 %	0.7 %	6.2 %
35	Birmingham-Hoover, Ala.	6.9 %	-0.4 %	7.3 %
36	Oklahoma City, Okla.	6.8 %	4.2 %	2.6 %
37	New York-Newark-Jersey City, N.Y.-N.J.-Pa.	6.8 %	1.8 %	5.0 %
37	Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, Ind.	6.8 %	-1.0 %	7.8 %
39	Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, Pa.-N.J.	6.6 %	1.9 %	4.7 %
40	Rochester, N.Y.	6.6 %	1.3 %	5.3 %
41	Durham-Chapel Hill, N.C.	6.6 %	0.7 %	5.9 %
42	Tulsa, Okla.	6.4 %	1.8 %	4.6 %
43	Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, Pa.-N.J.-Del.-Md.	6.3 %	0.6 %	5.7 %
44	Knoxville, Tenn.	6.1 %	-1.0 %	7.1 %
45	Scranton--Wilkes-Barre--Hazleton, Pa.	5.8 %	0.0 %	5.8 %
46	Portland-South Portland, Maine	5.7 %	-4.6 %	10.3 %
47	New Orleans-Metairie, La.	5.5 %	-0.8 %	6.3 %
48	Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, Texas	5.3 %	3.1 %	2.2 %
48	Greenville-Anderson-Mauldin, S.C.	5.3 %	0.4 %	4.9 %
50	Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, N.C.-S.C.	5.2 %	-0.3 %	5.5 %
51	Richmond, Va.	4.9 %	0.1 %	4.8 %
52	Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, Minn.-Wis.	4.8 %	-0.8 %	5.6 %
53	Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, Ga.	4.4 %	-0.3 %	4.7 %
54	McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, Texas	4.3 %	-0.5 %	4.8 %
55	St. Louis, Mo.-Ill.	4.2 %	-0.4 %	4.6 %
56	Madison, Wis.	4.0 %	-5.0 %	9.0 %
57	New Haven-Milford, Conn.	3.5 %	0.0 %	3.5 %
58	Colorado Springs, Colo.	3.5 %	-3.5 %	7.0 %
59	Spokane-Spokane Valley, Wash.	3.5 %	-6.1 %	9.6 %
60	Akron, Ohio	3.0 %	-0.8 %	3.8 %
61	Charleston-North Charleston, S.C.	3.0 %	-1.6 %	4.6 %
62	Providence-Warwick, R.I.-Mass.	2.8 %	-7.0 %	9.8 %
63	Wichita, Kan.	2.7 %	-4.3 %	7.0 %
64	Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, Colo.	2.3 %	-1.9 %	4.2 %
65	Albuquerque, N.M.	2.3 %	-3.0 %	5.3 %
66	Baton Rouge, La.	2.0 %	-5.1 %	7.1 %
67	Jacksonville, Fla.	1.6 %	-3.0 %	4.6 %
68	Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, Tenn.	1.6 %	-3.4 %	5.0 %
69	Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-Va.-Md.-W. Va.	1.5 %	-3.5 %	5.0 %
70	Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, Fla.	1.4 %	-2.0 %	3.4 %
71	Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, Ill.-Ind.-Wis.	1.0 %	-2.1 %	3.1 %
72	Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, Conn.	-0.6 %	-6.5 %	5.9 %
73	Salt Lake City, Utah	-1.8 %	-7.6 %	5.8 %
74	Raleigh, N.C.	-1.9 %	-7.3 %	5.4 %
75	Stockton-Lodi, Calif.	-2.2 %	-8.6 %	6.4 %
76	Boise City, Idaho	-2.2 %	-10.9 %	8.7 %
77	Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, Fla.	-3.1 %	-7.9 %	4.8 %
78	Lakeland-Winter Haven, Fla.	-3.4 %	-5.0 %	1.6 %
79	Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, Wash.	-3.5 %	-10.3 %	6.8 %
80	Austin-Round Rock, Texas	-3.6 %	-6.6 %	3.0 %
81	Ogden-Clearfield, Utah	-4.6 %	-11.0 %	6.4 %
82	Urban Honolulu, Hawaii	-4.7 %	-6.6 %	1.9 %
83	Bakersfield, Calif.	-5.5 %	-7.5 %	2.0 %
84	Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, Fla.	-5.6 %	-8.5 %	2.9 %
85	Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, Calif.	-5.7 %	-7.2 %	1.5 %
86	Cape Coral-Fort Myers, Fla.	-5.8 %	-5.9 %	0.1 %
87	Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, Ore.-Wash.	-6.8 %	-10.7 %	3.9 %
88	Sacramento--Roseville--Arden-Arcade, Calif.	-8.4 %	-12.1 %	3.7 %
89	Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, Nev.	-8.6 %	-10.9 %	2.3 %
90	San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, Calif.	-10.0 %	-13.3 %	3.3 %
91	Tucson, Ariz.	-10.2 %	-14.7 %	4.5 %
92	Fresno, Calif.	-11.5 %	-13.7 %	2.2 %
93	Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, Fla.	-11.7 %	-15.6 %	3.9 %
94	Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, Calif.	-12.6 %	-15.8 %	3.2 %
95	Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, Fla.	-15.5 %	-18.3 %	2.8 %
96	Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, Ariz.	-15.8 %	-18.4 %	2.6 %
97	San Diego-Carlsbad, Calif.	-23.7 %	-27.3 %	3.6 %
98	North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, Fla.	-25.5 %	-28.7 %	3.2 %
99	San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, Calif.	-26.1 %	-28.8 %	2.7 %
100	Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, Calif.	-27.4 %	-29.1 %	1.7 %

*Methodology
Realtor.com^®'s model-based forecast uses data on the housing market and overall economy to estimate 2023 values for these variables for the 100 largest U.S. metropolitan statistical areas by population size. These markets are then ranked by combined forecasted growth in home prices and sales. In cases of a tie, forecasted year-over-year sales growth was used as a tiebreaker.

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