Poll: Jeb Bush Tops Presidential Field Among Floridians

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Saint Leo University Polling Institute

Dec 10, 2014, 01:55 ET

SAINT LEO, Fla., Dec. 10, 2014 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- A new survey by the Saint Leo University Polling Institute is encouraging for former Florida Governor Jeb Bush as he mulls mounting a presidential campaign.

Bush tops the field of prospective candidates among Florida Republicans, named by 34 percent of respondents as their likely first choice. Former presidential candidate and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney is named by 15 percent of Republican voters, and U.S. Senator Marco Rubio of Florida has 10 percent. All other candidates trail in single digits.

"The conventional wisdom is that there's only room for one Florida Republican in the presidential field, Bush or Rubio; and the clear-cut winner is Jeb Bush," said Saint Leo's Frank Orlando, who is a political science instructor. "As Florida's 'favorite son," he appears to be winning the invisible primary. Our poll results confirm beyond a doubt his dominance over Rubio and the other Republican contenders. Jeb is wildly popular among Floridians."

Bush enjoys a 57/37 favorability rating among Florida likely voters of all parties, meaning a total of 57 percent view him either strongly or somewhat favorably, compared to the sum of 37 percent who view him either somewhat or not at all favorably. Among Republicans, the rating jumps to a sterling 83/11. U.S. Senator Marco Rubio of Florida is also popular with voters–just not quite as popular. His favorability rating is 52/39, rising to 79/16 among Republicans.

"People perceive Jeb Bush differently in the rest of the country. Inside Florida, he's Jeb. Outside of Florida, he's George's brother," Orlando explained. "Jeb Bush continues to struggle to separate his personality from the former president. However, inside the Sunshine State, he stands for himself; he's his own man. He's been the most popular figure in the state for a generation."

When matched up against former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton as a Democratic nominee. Bush leads Clinton, 43-42, among likely Florida voters. Rubio also keeps it close, though Clinton leads Rubio, 46-42.

"The odds of a Republican reaching the White House without winning Florida are slim. Winning Florida with their 29 electoral votes, is a must," Orlando concluded. "If Jeb were to run, he has the best chance of winning Florida."

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SOURCE Saint Leo University Polling Institute