Platts China Steel Sentiment Index Stabilizes in September
Domestic orders to stay flat but exports tipped to deteriorate
BEIJING, Sept. 7, 2015 /PRNewswire/ -- Chinese steel market participants expect new steel orders during September to stay at similar levels to last month, though prices could soften slightly, according to the latest Platts China Steel Sentiment Index (Platts CSSI), which showed a headline reading of 55.64 out of a possible 100 points in September.
The September index rose just 0.45 points from August's 55.19, and was the second consecutive month the CSSI has stayed above the 50 threshold. A figure greater than 50 indicates expectations of an increase. The outlook for new domestic steel orders increased by 1.35 points to 58.33, while export order expectations for the month deteriorated by 10.09 points to 24.48.
Crude steel production was expected to stay relatively flat in September, compared with August, while steel inventories held by traders were expected to rise further in response to weak demand.
Prices of flat steel products, such as hot rolled coil, were expected to weaken slightly in September, the CSSI showed. Sentiment is currently more positive regarding domestic demand, while expectations for export orders fell 10.09 points in September to 24.48.
"Generally, market sentiment remains extremely pessimistic with domestic steel prices at record lows, while demand from the manufacturing and property construction sectors has yet to improve," said Paul Bartholomew, Platts managing editor of steel and steel raw materials. "Exports have provided a vital outlet for Chinese steel but there is now so much competition for overseas markets that it is pulling export prices down and eroding confidence."
Platts China Steel Sentiment Index – September 2015
(a figure over 50 indicates expectations of an increase; under 50 indicates a decrease)
| September 2015 |
Change from August (points) |
|
| CSSI (Total New Orders) |
55.64 |
0.45 |
| New Domestic Orders |
58.33 |
1.35 |
| New Export Orders |
24.48 |
-10.09 |
| Steel Production |
37.14 |
2.14 |
| Steel Prices (flat products) |
41.43 |
-3.57 |
| Stocks held by traders |
61.34 |
13.64 |
CSSI reflects expectations of market participants for the month ahead. A CSSI reading above 50 indicates an increase/expansion and a reading below 50 indicates a decrease/contraction. It is based on a survey of approximately 50 to 75 China-based market participants including traders, stockists and steel mill operators.
"Normally, you would expect a positive rebound for steel demand as the weather cools and construction activity picks up, particularly after the work stoppages around Beijing for the Victory Day parade and World Athletics Championship," Bartholomew said. "However, survey respondents did not envisage any significant improvement in the coming month."
Separate to the CSSI, the average monthly price in August for China export hot rolled coil was $306.21 per metric ton (mt) free on board (FOB) China. This was down 2.7% from $314.98/mt in July.
The Platts China Steel Sentiment Index survey plays no role in Platts' formal price assessment processes. For more information, visit: http://www.platts.com/IM.Platts.Content/MethodologyReferences/MethodologySpecs/steel.pdf.
CONTACT
Global, Americas: Kathleen Tanzy, + 1 917 331 4607, [email protected]
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Appendix
| CSSI – 2015
|
|||||||||
| Jan-15 |
Feb-15 |
Mar-15 |
Apr-15 |
May-15 |
Jun-15 |
Jul-15 |
Aug-15 |
Sep-15 |
|
| CSSI |
23.06 |
8.83 |
72.27 |
74.71 |
68.20 |
42.20 |
26.57 |
55.19 |
55.64 |
| Steel production |
53.33 |
26.67 |
51.47 |
55.36 |
52.08 |
44.44 |
50.00 |
35.00 |
37.14 |
| New domestic orders |
22.65 |
7.59 |
75.12 |
76.72 |
70.29 |
43.27 |
26.42 |
56.97 |
58.33 |
| New export orders |
27.01 |
23.18 |
39.35 |
51.50 |
43.98 |
29.93 |
28.36 |
34.57 |
24.48 |
| Trader inventories |
51.97 |
86.44 |
76.15 |
17.46 |
38.59 |
38.69 |
42.43 |
47.70 |
61.34 |
| Flats prices |
19.71 |
41.07 |
52.78 |
60.99 |
78.33 |
53.18 |
21.88 |
45.00 |
41.43 |
| Export prices |
10.19 |
22.73 |
28.84 |
39.11 |
40.33 |
31.89 |
17.35 |
38.44 |
15.67 |
SOURCE Platts
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