PJM Winter Outlook: Adequate Power Supplies Available Under Normal Conditions

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Oct 14, 2024, 10:33 ET

Rising Demand, Retiring Resources Tighten Reserves and Heighten Risk Under Extreme Weather Conditions

VALLEY FORGE, Pa., Oct. 14, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- PJM Interconnection and its members have adequate resources to serve the forecasted demand for electricity this winter under expected conditions, although reserve margins continue to shrink with continued generator retirements and increasing demand.

PJM, the grid operator for 13 states and the District of Columbia, expects to have approximately 179,800 MW of resources to meet the forecasted peak demand of approximately 141,200 MW, plus a forecast average of about 5,500 MW of electricity exports to neighboring systems. The system should also remain reliable under several more extreme and less likely scenarios involving lower levels of gas and/or renewable generation, higher electricity demand or increased exports, but extreme weather scenarios may require the use of emergency procedures.

"The PJM system is reliable today, but we are keenly aware of the challenges we face as system reserves continue to erode," said PJM President and CEO Manu Asthana. "The trends we are seeing raise system risk under the kind of extreme weather we have seen over the past few years."

PJM remains concerned that increasing demand, ongoing generator retirements and the slow pace of new projects coming online are tightening reserves. Since Winter Storm Elliott in December 2022, forecasted winter peak demand has risen by over 4,000 MW, while the number of thermal generation resources have decreased.

These combined factors add a degree of risk that generator failures on the level of Elliott could leave the system vulnerable to power outages.

Michael Bryson, Sr. Vice President – Operations, said PJM and its stakeholders over the past two years have focused on sharpening situational awareness for PJM operators, as well as generator preparation, communication and scheduling.

"We are not that far away from Winter Storm Elliott, so the possibility of that scenario remains very real," Bryson said. "We saw how the work we have done with stakeholders since then has helped generator performance while improving our awareness of the system's true capability at any given time."

PJM analyzes the expected demand for electricity, weather predictions and other factors to develop its forecast for winter operations. PJM's ongoing Cold Weather Preparation Guideline and Checklist for generation owners includes everything from increasing staffing for weather emergencies to performing required maintenance activities to prepare equipment for winter conditions. This checklist is mandatory.

Each year, PJM performs winter readiness assessments in advance of the cold weather months, collecting data on fuel inventory, supply and delivery characteristics, emissions limitations, and minimum operating temperatures. PJM meets with federal and state regulators and neighboring systems to review winter preparations. PJM also conducts weekly operational review meetings with major natural gas pipeline operators serving generators in the PJM footprint to coordinate operations with the pipelines that supply a large portion of the gas generation fleet. PJM and its members also conduct a cold weather operations drill ahead of each winter.

Additionally, ahead of this winter, PJM will schedule site visits to generation resources along with ReliabilityFirst and SERC, two of the six regional organizations that audit reliability standards on behalf of the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC).

In 2023, PJM and the Independent Market Monitor developed and published guidance for generators (PDF) on how best to provide timely and accurate information about their operating parameters and availability during periods of natural gas pipeline operating restrictions.

PJM's all-time winter peak was 143,295 MW, set on Feb. 20, 2015.

PJM Interconnection, founded in 1927, ensures the reliability of the high-voltage electric power system serving 65 million people in all or parts of Delaware, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland, Michigan, New Jersey, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia and the District of Columbia. PJM coordinates and directs the operation of the region's transmission grid, which includes 88,115 miles of transmission lines; administers a competitive wholesale electricity market; and plans regional transmission expansion improvements to maintain grid reliability and relieve congestion. PJM's regional grid and market operations produce annual savings of $3.2 billion to $4 billion. For the latest news about PJM, visit PJM Inside Lines at insidelines.pjm.com.