Pace of Global Economic Expansion Expected to Accelerate in 2014; U.S. Economic Growth Should Uptick in Late 2013, Says BNY Mellon's Richard Hoey

NEW YORK and LONDON, April 11, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- The global economy will continue to expand this year, with a faster pace of growth close to 4% likely next year, according to BNY Mellon's Chief Economist Richard Hoey in his most recent Economic Update.  While Hoey thinks economic growth in the middle months of 2013 may be temporarily sluggish due to the final phase of the overall European recession and the impact of U.S. fiscal tightening, Hoey sees faster U.S. economic growth after Labor Day.*

"We expect a 'Labor Day inflection point' from the 2% growth rate of recent years to a new cyclical growth rate of 3% or more," says Hoey.  "This would be an important 'Two Percent to Three Percent Transition' in the growth rate of the U.S. economy," he continued.  "However, it is unlikely to occur until late 2013."

Other report findings include:

Global Stimulative Monetary Policy Will Continue – Hoey does not expect global stimulative monetary policy to end soon.  As monetary policy is easy worldwide, Hoey sees favorable prospects for growth improvement in China, Europe, Japan and the U.S. over the next year, as well as an improvement in confidence within the emerging countries.

Sluggish European Economic Recovery Expected – While Europe remains in a recession, Hoey believes that Europe will expand moderately in 2014 and does not expect a repeat broad financial crisis.  However, Hoey states that Europe does not yet have a plausible strategy to improve credit availability in the private sector of peripheral countries.

Positive on "Abenomics" in Japan – While the long-term outlook for Japan remains uncertain, Hoey believes that Japan's new aggressive monetary policies (Abenomics) are likely to contribute to positive economic growth in Japan and positive inflation in the next two years.

See http://www.bnymellon.com/foresight/update-video.html for Hoey's complete April 2013 Economic Update.

*Labor Day in the U.S. is Monday September 2, 2013. 

Notes to Editors:

BNY Mellon Investment Management is one of the world's leading investment management organizations and one of the top U.S. wealth managers, with $1.4 trillion in assets under management. It encompasses BNY Mellon's affiliated investment management firms, wealth management services and global distribution companies. More information can be found at www.bnymellon.com.

BNY Mellon is a global investments company dedicated to helping its clients manage and service their financial assets throughout the investment lifecycle.  Whether providing financial services for institutions, corporations or individual investors, BNY Mellon delivers informed investment management and investment services in 36 countries and more than 100 markets.  As of December 31, 2012, BNY Mellon had $26.7 trillion in assets under custody and administration, and $1.4 trillion in assets under management.  BNY Mellon can act as a single point of contact for clients looking to create trade, hold, manage, service, distribute or restructure investments.  BNY Mellon is the corporate brand of The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation (NYSE: BK).  Additional information is available on www.bnymellon.com, or follow us on Twitter @BNYMellon.

All  information source BNY Mellon as of December 31, 2012. This press release is qualified for issuance in the UK and US and is for information purposes only. It does not constitute an offer or solicitation of securities or investment services or an endorsement thereof in any jurisdiction or in any circumstance in which such offer or solicitation is unlawful or not authorized. This press release is issued by BNY Mellon Investment Management (US) and BNY Mellon Asset Management International Limited (ex-US) to members of the financial press and media and the information contained herein should not be construed as investment advice. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.  The value of investments and the income from them is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise due to stock market and currency movements.  When you sell your investment you may get back less than you originally invested. Registered office of BNY Mellon Asset Management International Limited: BNY Mellon Centre, 160 Queen Victoria Street, London, EC4V 4LA. Registered in England no. 1118580. Authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Authority. A BNY Mellon Company.

SOURCE BNY Mellon

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