Online Labor Demand Rises 93,800 in December, The Conference Board Reports

- Labor demand rises 93,800 in December for an average monthly gain for 2011 of about 22,000

- Nationally, there are 9.4 million more unemployed than advertised vacancies

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Jan 04, 2012, 10:00 ET

NEW YORK, Jan. 4, 2012 /PRNewswire/ -- Online advertised vacancies rose 93,800 in December to 3,951,000, according to The Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine® (HWOL) Data Series released today. The December increase offset the dips of 76,000 in November and 14,000 in October. The Supply/Demand rate stands at 3.45, indicating there were 3.5 unemployed for every online advertised vacancy in November, the latest monthly data available for unemployment.

"The December increase was a welcome lift for labor demand after a lackluster year," said June Shelp, Vice President at The Conference Board. Labor demand struggled in 2011. After a promising start in the early months of the year, labor demand had been basically flat since August. Some of the occupations that saw an uptick in December are among those in which the Supply/Demand rate (number of unemployed relative to advertised vacancies) was well above the National average for all occupations. Production jobs, where there are 7.7 unemployed for every advertised vacancy, rose 11,000 in December and Building and grounds workers, with a S/D rate of 12.6, rose 5,300. (See occupational detail section.)

REGIONAL AND STATE HIGHLIGHTS

In December:

All 4 regions experience gains
Among the 20 largest States, gains were widespread
In the South, gains were offset by declines in Virginia and Maryland

In December, the Midwest experienced the largest gain, 44,600, reflecting gains in all 6 of its largest States. Michigan had the largest increase, 12,400. Illinois was next with a gain of 6,500. Ohio rose 6,400. Minnesota and Missouri both gained 5,100 after a November loss of over 6,000 each. Wisconsin rose 4,800, its first gain since May. Among the less populous States in the region, Iowa gained 3,200, North Dakota rose 1,200, and South Dakota gained 600.

Labor demand in the West was up 41,200 in December and was led by its largest State, California, which gained 12,500. Colorado gained 6,900. Washington State rose 3,900. Arizona gained 3,500. Among the medium / smaller States in the West, Oregon gained 3,700, Idaho rose 2,100, New Mexico gained 1,500, Utah rose 800, and Nevada gained 700.

The Northeast was up by 27,200 in December, reflecting gains in all 4 of its large States. New York experienced the largest gain, 7,500, compensating for its November loss. Next was Massachusetts with a gain of 5,500, its first gain since May. New Jersey rose 4,900. Pennsylvania gained 2,100. Among the smaller States in the region, Connecticut rose 4,100, New Hampshire gained 1,600, Vermont rose 800, and Rhode Island gained 400.

The South rose 10,500, led by a gain of 4,500 in Texas, rising for the fourth consecutive month while North Carolina rose 3,200. These increases were offset, in part, by weak labor demand in several of the other large states. Among the largest States, Virginia and Maryland declined 11,200 and 2,500 respectively, while Florida (+100) and Georgia (+600) showed little change in December. Among the less populous States in the South, several posted increases in December. Oklahoma gained 1,900, Tennessee rose 1,700, Louisiana gained 1,500, and Arkansas rose 1,300.

The Supply/Demand rate for the U.S. in November (the latest month for which unemployment numbers are available) stood at 3.45, indicating that there are over 3 unemployed workers for every online advertised vacancy. Nationally, there are 9.4 million more unemployed workers than advertised vacancies. While the number of advertised vacancies rose an average of 29,000 a month, the November Supply/Demand rate was basically in line with the January '11 rate of 3.24.

The number of advertised vacancies exceeded the number of unemployed only in North Dakota, where the Supply/Demand rate was 0.88. States with the next lowest rates included Nebraska (1.27), South Dakota (1.40), Vermont (1.60), Alaska (1.83), Minnesota (1.89), and New Hampshire (1.92).The State with the highest Supply/Demand rate is Mississippi (7.73), where there are close to 8 unemployed workers for every online advertised vacancy. The States with the next highest Supply/Demand rates are Kentucky (5.25), California (4.84), Alabama (4.78), and Illinois (4.78).

It should be noted that the Supply/Demand rate only provides a measure of relative tightness of the individual State labor markets and does not suggest that the occupations of the unemployed directly align with the occupations of the advertised vacancies (see Occupational Highlights section).

OCCUPATIONAL HIGHLIGHTS

In December:

Demand for Management and Computer and Mathematical Science workers shows increase
Ads for Healthcare Practitioners and Technical and Architecture and Engineering workers decline

Changes for the Month of December

In December, seventeen of the 22 Standard Occupational Classifications (SOC codes) that are reported separately posted gains, four declined, and one, Life, Physical, and Social Science, was unchanged.

Among the top 10 occupation groups with the largest numbers of online advertised vacancies, demand for Management occupations rose 15,100 to 381,200, which more than offset the previous 2-month decrease of 11,700. Responsible for the rise was higher demand for Education Administrators, Elementary and Secondary School. The number of unemployed in these occupations remains above the number of advertised vacancies with almost 2 (1.88) unemployed for every advertised vacancy.

Labor demand for Computer and Mathematical Science workers rose 10,400 to 524,100. Responsible for the rise was higher demand for document management specialists. The number of advertised vacancies in this occupational category continues to outnumber job-seekers by 2.9 to 1 (0.34 S/D based on November data, the latest unemployment data available).

Healthcare Practitioners and Technical occupations posted a decrease of 7,600 to 522,200. Largely responsible for the drop were decreased advertised vacancies for Registered Nurses. The number of advertised vacancies in this occupational category continues to be quite favorable and outnumber job-seekers by 2.9 to 1 (0.34 S/D).

Architecture and Engineering positions decreased by 5,300 to 141,000 advertised vacancies in December. Industrial Engineers were largely responsible for this decline. In this field the number of advertised vacancies continues to outnumber job-seekers by 1.2 to one (0.86 S/D based on November data, the latest unemployment data available).

Longer View of Labor Demand for Selected Occupations

A number of the occupations that posted gains in December 2011 were among the occupations that have high Supply/Demand rates indicating that the number of out-of-work job seekers exceeds the advertised vacancies. However, for many of these occupations, the situation has improved substantially since the months after the official end of the recession (June 2009). In November 2011 occupations where finding a position is more challenging and where there are more unemployed than advertised vacancies include Construction (16.7 unemployed for every advertised opening). However, in the last six months of 2009 there were just under 50 unemployed looking for work in construction jobs for every online advertised vacancy. Other occupations where looking for a job is still challenging, but somewhat easier than at the end of the recession, include Production occupations and Building and grounds cleaning and maintenance. In November 2011 the Supply/Demand rates for Production occupations was 7.7, and 12.6 for Building and grounds jobs. In the last 6 months of 2009 the S/D rate for both occupations was 21.6.

Other occupations that continue to have relatively high Supply/Demand rate include Food preparation and serving (8.4); and Personal care (7.5), indicating in November 2011 there were around 8 unemployed for every available online opening. Job prospects in both of these occupations have improved since the end of 2009, albeit the reduction has been less dramatic than in other occupations such as construction. In the last six months of 2009, there were about 12 (11.9) unemployed for every available ad in Food preparation and serving jobs and 9 (8.7) unemployed for every vacancy in Personal care.

METRO AREA HIGHLIGHTS

There are less than 2 unemployed for every online advertised vacancy in 10 of the top 52 metro areas
Washington, D.C., has the lowest Supply/Demand rate (1.24)

In December, 42 of the 52 metropolitan areas for which data are reported separately posted over-the-year increases in the number of online advertised vacancies. Among the three metro areas with the largest numbers of advertised vacancies, the New York metro area was down 400, or 0.2 percent, from its December 2010 level and the Washington, DC metro area was down 9,800, or 7.4 percent, from last year. The Los Angeles metro area was up 900, or 0.7 percent, from last year's level.

The number of unemployed exceeded the number of advertised vacancies in all of the 52 metro areas for which information is reported separately. Washington, DC continues to have the most favorable Supply/Demand rate (1.24) with about one advertised vacancy for every unemployed worker. Minneapolis-St. Paul, Oklahoma City, Boston, and Salt Lake City were metropolitan locations with the next lowest Supply/Demand rates. On the other hand, metro areas in which the respective number of unemployed is substantially above the number of online advertised vacancies include Riverside, CA — where there are nearly nine unemployed workers for every advertised vacancy (8.86) — Sacramento (5.18), Miami (5.10), Los Angeles (4.54), Las Vegas (4.24), and Chicago (4.12). Supply/Demand rate data are for October 2011, the latest month for which unemployment data for local areas are available.

PROGRAM NOTES

The Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine® Data Series measures the number of new, first-time online jobs and jobs reposted from the previous month on more than 1,200 major Internet job sites and smaller job sites that serve niche markets and smaller geographic areas.

Like The Conference Board's long-running Help Wanted Advertising Index of print ads (which was published for over 55 years and discontinued in December 2008 but continues to be available for research), the new online series is not a direct measure of job vacancies. The level of ads in print and online can change for reasons not related to overall job demand.

With the December 1, 2008 release, HWOL began providing seasonally adjusted data for the U.S., the nine Census regions and the 50 States. Seasonally adjusted data for occupations were provided beginning with the December 2009 release. This data series, for which the earliest data are for November 2005, continues to publish not seasonally adjusted data for 52 large metropolitan areas.

People using this data are urged to review the information on the database and methodology available on The Conference Board website and contact us with questions and comments. Background information and technical notes and discussion of revisions to the series are available at: http://www.conference-board.org/data/helpwantedonline.cfm.

The underlying online job listings data for this series is provided by Wanted Technologies Corporation. Additional information on the Bureau of Labor Statistics data used in this release can be found on the BLS website, www.bls.gov.

The Conference Board

The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.

WANTED Technologies Corporation

WANTED is a leading supplier of real-time sales and business intelligence solutions for the media classified and recruitment industries. Using its proprietary On-Demand data mining, lead generation and CRM (Customer Relationship Management) integrated technologies, WANTED aggregates real-time data from thousands of online job sites, real estate and newspaper sites, as well as corporate websites on a daily basis. WANTED's data is used to optimize sales and to implement marketing strategies within the classified ad departments of major media organizations, as well as by staffing firms, advertising agencies and human resources specialists. For more information, please visit: http://www.wantedtech.com.

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