OAG 30-Year World Crisis Analysis Reveals Aviation Industry's Surprising Resiliency

Since 1979, global airline capacity grew an average of 3.1% annually - mostly immune to all but the 9/11 World Trade Centre attacks and the Global Banking crisis

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OAG

Sep 08, 2011, 12:00 ET

SINGAPORE, Sept. 8, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- OAG, the global leader in aviation intelligence and a UBM Aviation brand, today released the results of the OAG World Crisis Analysis, which calculated the impact that events such as terrorism, pandemics and natural disasters have had on global airline capacity over the past 30 years. The analysis shows that global airline capacity has grown on average 3.1% per year since 1979, and that air travel is largely immune to regionalised events such as natural disasters, conflicts, and fuel price spikes. In fact, in the vast majority of crises, there was a negligible impact in global airline capacity, and at a regional level capacity dropped less than 4% and recovered within three months.

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"The OAG World Crisis Analysis shows how quickly the aviation industry responds and adapts in the face of almost any disaster, which is reassuring news for world markets and the ancillary industries that depend on aviation," said Peter von Moltke, Chief Executive Officer of UBM Aviation. "Informed by sound historical data and analytics that provide a reliable picture of how external factors affect passenger demand, airlines are able to quickly adjust their flight capacities based on market needs, thus mitigating the impact of crises."

Major findings of the report include:

From 1979 to September 11, 2001, world airline capacity was steadily increasing at an average of 5%, or 94 million seats, per year.
Since the 9/11 World Trade Centre attacks, world capacity has steadily grown an average of 2.6%, or 81 million seats, per year.
The World Trade Centre attacks in 2001 and the Global Banking crisis of 2008-2009 are the only two events since 1979 that caused significant decreases in global air capacity, averaging a 3% and 9% drop in capacity and recovering within 36 months and 24 months respectively.
Regionalized events such as the Gulf Wars, swine flu and volcanic eruptions caused on average less than a 4% drop in regional airline capacity that recovered within three months or less, with a negligible impact on global capacity.
Continued growth in air capacity is being driven mainly by Brazil, Russia, India, Indonesia, Middle East and China, where growth of the middle class and personal wealth is contributing to increased air travel demand.

"After analyzing OAG's capacity data from the last three decades, we were astonished at the airline industry's resiliency in times of crisis. One would have thought that tragic events in recent years would have dramatically affected air travel capacity for long periods of time, but that simply has not been the case, with only the World Trade Centre attacks and Global Banking crises causing major disruptions," said Mario Hardy, Vice President – Asia Pacific, UBM Aviation. "Difficult lessons learned from past tragedies have been taken to heart and put to good use by the aviation industry, which is poised to continue growing for the foreseeable future."

OAG World Crisis Analysis At-A-Glance Summary:


Event	Event scale	Recovery period
Volcanic Eruption US-May 1980	Low	up to 3 months
Volcanic Eruption Columbia-Nov 1985	Low	up to 3 months
Earthquake Armenia-Dec 1988	Low	up to 3 months
Earthquake Iran-Jun 1990	Low	up to 3 months
Cyclone and Flooding Bangladesh-Apr 1991	Low	up to 3 months
Flood North Korea-Aug 1995	Low	up to 3 months
Drought India-May 2000	Low	up to 3 months
WTC Attack US-Sep 2001	High	12-36 months
First SARS alerts Hong Kong-March 2003	Medium	3-12 months
SARS China-Jan 2004	Medium	3-12 months
Second SARS China-Jan 2005	Medium	3-12 months
Earthquake China-May 2008	Low	up to 3 months
Swine Flu Mexico-Apr 2009	Low	up to 3 months
Banking Crisis 2009	High	12-36 months
Volcanic Ash Iceland-Apr 2010	Low	up to 3 months
Quake, Tsunami and nuclear plant explosion Japan-March 2011	Medium	3-12 months

A more detailed review of the OAG World Crisis Analysis – including information, commentary and charts about specific events and regions worldwide – is available to download now at www.oagaviation.com/worldcrisisanalysis.

OAG also publishes the monthly OAG FACTS (Frequency and Capacity Trend Statistics) report, which provides a visual snapshot of airline activity around the world and uses interactive graphs to display 10-year performance trends, sourced from OAG's consolidated database of global airline schedules. OAG FACTS reports can be accessed at www.oagaviation.com/OAG-FACTS/.

About OAG

OAG, a UBM Aviation brand, is the trusted source for aviation information and analytical services, with data sourced from OAG's comprehensive and proprietary airline Schedules, Flight Status, Fleet, MRO and Cargo Logistics databases. Our airline schedules database holds future and historical flight details for over 1,000 airlines and more than 4,000 airports. Our aggregated data feeds the world's global distribution systems and travel portals, and drives the internal systems of many airlines, airports, air traffic control systems, aircraft manufacturers, and government agencies around the world. For more information, visit www.oag.com.

About UBM Aviation

UBM Aviation, a UBM company, brings together buyers and sellers of air travel and transport through our portfolio of products and services. We specialize in the supply of data, analytics, consulting services, events and media related to the global aviation industry. Our leading brands include the official provider of aviation data and analytics, OAG; a leading provider of solutions for the air freight industry, OAG Cargo; the world-renowned provider of airport route development forums, marketing and networking events, Routes; the leading route development consultancy firm, Airport Strategy & Marketing (ASM); an international program of aviation exhibitions and conferences including the Airline Purchasing & Maintenance Conference & Expo; and must-read aviation publications such as Aircraft Technology Engineering & Maintenance and Airline Fleet Management. For more information, visit www.ubmaviation.com.

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SOURCE OAG