New Urban Science Software Predicts Consumer Vehicle Demand

DETROIT, April 19 /PRNewswire/ -- Global retail consulting firm Urban Science has announced the launch of AutoClarity, a progressive forecasting tool for automakers that uses the collective intelligence of its dealership staff and sales force to guide decisions on new-vehicle sales and incentives.

With this web-based dynamic poll, dealership managers, manufacturer field personnel and salespeople familiar with their regional markets and the automotive industry estimate items like how many vehicles should be produced, what the options packages and mixes should look like, and what incentives will work. Insight uncovered through these interactive questionnaires is critical in a changing market with fluctuating consumer confidence levels.

"When preparing for a new-vehicle launch, automakers don't have historical data, so instead they rely on only a couple of company insiders to do the forecast," said Mitch Phillips, global practice director of Urban Science. "That method is risky and often inaccurate because it lacks diversified insight into consumer preferences. AutoClarity represents an opportunity for automakers to collaborate with their dealers, listen to their employees' points of view and leverage regional knowledge to predict customer preferences and new-car demand."

AutoClarity serves as a grassroots method to get input months in advance for items like:

• Incentives: Spend marketing dollars more effectively by offering incentives only to regions where it's predicted that they're needed.
• Vehicle features and options packages: Provide the right mix of vehicles with features like DVD players or heated seats.
• Marketing: Use proven tactics that will resonate with local markets.
• Sales: Determine how many vehicles are expected to sell in a particular region.

"Insight into incentives is AutoClarity's biggest advantage," said Phillips. "Automakers offer many broad-based incentives and oftentimes they're giving them when they don't need to."

The theory behind collective polls can be illustrated through the TV show "Who Wants to Be a Millionaire", which demonstrates it's more effective to poll a large audience to get the most accurate answer. When the contestant is in the hot seat, statistically the "Ask the Audience" option is 50 percent more accurate than "Phone a Friend." With AutoClarity, users answer a series of questions about incentives, vehicle feature popularity and marketing needs. Participants can weigh their guesses based on how confident they are in each prediction. Automakers consider all data collected, make their decisions and then measure the predictions versus actual results. The person with the guess closest to the actual is rewarded.

"This new tool allows automakers to quickly share information and set realistic goals for sales," said Phillips. "It serves as a safety net providing critical insight when the market swings, providing data on consumer demand for new vehicles, and can help identify differing preferences between regions."

The scalable web application works most effectively when used on a monthly basis.

Founded in 1977, Urban Science is a global retail consulting firm that combines science with marketing to give companies the competitive edge they need to increase their market share and profitability in the most effective and efficient manner. With headquarters in Detroit, Urban Science serves its global clientele from offices in the United States, Spain, United Kingdom, Germany, Italy, France, Australia, China, Mexico, Japan, India and Russia. www.urbanscience.com 

SOURCE Urban Science