New AARP Post-Election Poll of Competitive Congressional Districts Shows Older Voters Prioritized Economic Concerns

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Nov 15, 2024, 12:11 ET

Data Reveal How the 2024 Election Was Decided By Older Voters and Pocketbook Issues

WASHINGTON, Nov. 15, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- Today, AARP released a poll of voters from the 43 most competitive congressional districts this election season.

Voters ages 50 and older were key in the 2024 election. Data shows that across the country, older voters made up 55% of the electorate, and that winning the 50+ vote was key to winning races up and down the ballot around the country. AARP's survey found House Republicans won voters 50+ by a 50% - 47% margin while these districts were a dead heat among voters overall, allowing Republicans to maintain a narrow advantage in the House of Representatives.

"Our polling showed that older voters were the most motivated to cast their ballots, and they showed up in an outsized way on election day," said Nancy LeaMond, AARP Executive Vice President and Chief Advocacy and Engagement Officer. "A majority of older voters said a personal economic issue – inflation, jobs and the economy, or Social Security – was top of mind as the most important issue in determining their vote this year."

In AARP's poll, 8% of older voters were swing voters – those who split their ticket between parties for President and for Congress. Among these swing voters the top issues were economic issues, and specifically inflation and jobs and the economy.

Other key takeaways from the poll among voters ages 50 and older include:

The top issues for older voters writ-large were immigration/border security, jobs and the economy, and threats to democracy.
Economic issues – jobs, inflation, and Social Security – stood out as major motivating factors for Hispanic and Black 50+ voters, along with swing voters.
A majority (55%) of older voters said that Social Security is or will be a major source of their income, and 80% said it was an extremely or very important issue in determining their vote.
- Among older voters, Democrats in Congress had a two-point advantage when asked who voters would trust most on the issue of Social Security.
- The group of older voters that said Social Security would be very or extremely important to their vote trusted Democrats in Congress over the GOP to address Social Security by a 6-point margin and vote for the Democratic candidate by a 3-point margin.
31% of older voters self-identified as a family caregiver. These voters narrowly preferred Kamala Harris and their Democratic candidate for Congress, and prioritized Social Security and threats to democracy as their top issues for how they decided to cast their ballots.

View the full survey results here.

AARP commissioned the bipartisan polling team of Fabrizio Ward (R) & Impact Research (D) to conduct a survey of voters in Targeted Congressional Districts across the country as defined by the Cook Political Report (see Slide 19). The firms interviewed 2,348 likely voters, which included a core representative sample of 1200 likely voters and an oversample of 540 likely voters age 50+ up to 1200 total likely voters 50+ older, both of which had a roughly equal number of interviews (27-29) conducted in each district. There was also an additional oversample of 268 Hispanic likely voters age 50+, and an additional oversample of 340 Black likely voters age 50+. The survey was done between November 6-10, 2024. The interviews were conducted via live interviewer on landline (20%) and cellphone (41%), as well as SMS-to-web (39%). The sample was randomly drawn from the voter list. Interviews were offered in English and Spanish. The margin of sampling error at the 95% confidence level for the 1200 sample is ±2.9%; for the 1200 total sample of voters 50+ is ±2.9%; for the 400 total sample of Hispanic voters 50+ and Black voters 50+ is ±4.9%.

About AARP
AARP is the nation's largest nonprofit, nonpartisan organization dedicated to empowering people 50 and older to choose how they live as they age. With a nationwide presence, AARP strengthens communities and advocates for what matters most to the more than 100 million Americans 50-plus and their families: health security, financial stability and personal fulfillment. AARP also produces the nation's largest circulation publications: AARP The Magazine and AARP Bulletin. To learn more, visit www.aarp.org/about-aarp/, www.aarp.org/español or follow @AARP, @AARPenEspañol and @AARPadvocates on social media.

SOURCE AARP