New AARP Nevada Poll: Presidential Race Neck and Neck

Former President Donald Trump leads Vice President Kamala Harris by 1 point among voters overall and holds a 7-point lead over Harris among voters 50-plus

LAS VEGAS, Oct. 22, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- Today, AARP Nevada released its second 2024 statewide election survey that shows candidates for President, U.S. Senate, and state races should pay close attention to Nevadans ages 50 and older, who make up an outsized portion of the electorate. Eighty-nine percent of voters ages 50 and older say they are "extremely motivated" to cast a ballot in November, a 4-point increase since AARP Nevada's first poll, released in June. Among older Hispanic and Latino voters, 84% say their motivation to vote is 10-out-of-10, an uptick of 9 points since June.

Former President Donald Trump (R) leads Vice President Kamala Harris (D) by 1 point, 47%-46%, among voters overall, with 1% of voters supporting a third-party candidate and 2% undecided. Trump also has a slight lead in a head-to-head matchup, 49%-47%, again with 2% undecided. Among voters 50 and older, Trump leads over Harris, 51%-44%, but among older Hispanic and Latino voters, Harris leads Trump by 15 points. Trump is ahead by 18 points among men overall and by 17 points among men 50 and older. Women overall favor Harris by 15 points, while older women prefer her by 2 points.

In the Senate race, Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) leads challenger Sam Brown (R), 49%-44%, among voters overall. Brown narrowly leads Rosen among voters 50 and older, 49%-46%, but among older Hispanic and Latino voters, Rosen holds a 20-point lead.

"With the presidential and senate races so close, appealing to high-turnout older voters should be a major priority for all the campaigns," said Maria Moore, AARP Nevada State Director. "If candidates want to win in Nevada, they should focus on the issues that matter to older voters, from protecting Social Security to supporting family caregivers and bringing down the costs of necessities like food and housing." 

Eighty percent of voters ages 50 and older report that candidates' positions on Social Security are very important in deciding whom to vote for in November, followed by Medicare (73%), the cost of utilities (72%), and helping people stay in their homes as they age (70%). And the vast majority (80%) of older Nevada voters prefer a member of Congress who wants Medicare to continue negotiating for lower prescription drug prices.

Other key takeaways from the poll among voters 50 and older include:

• Sixteen percent of older voters are swing voters – those who do not vote straight ticket Republican or Democrat – and among this group, Trump is ahead by 14 points and Rosen is ahead by 20 points.
• Sixty-two percent say they are worried about their personal financial situation, with the cost of food, housing, and utilities ranking as top drivers of financial stress.
• Immigration and border security (38%) is the most important issue when deciding who to vote for in November, followed by the economy and jobs (30%) and inflation and rising prices (24%).
  • Fifty-nine percent cite at least one personal economic issue – inflation and rising prices, the economy and jobs, and Social Security – as most important to them.
  • Fifty-three percent of older voters say Social Security is or will be a major source of their income.
• Twenty-six percent of older voters identify as family caregivers, with 33% of swing voters and 30% of older women voters saying the same. Family caregivers 50 and older make up 14% of voters overall; Trump has a 13-point lead and Brown has a 5-point lead among this group.

AARP commissioned the bipartisan polling team of Fabrizio Ward (R) & Impact Research (D) to conduct a survey of voters in Nevada. The firms interviewed 1,368 likely voters, which includes a statewide representative sample of 600 likely voters, an oversample of 488 likely voters ages 50 and older, and an additional oversample of 280 Hispanic likely voters ages 50 and older. The survey was done between October 8-15, 2024. The interviews were conducted via live interviewer on landline (20%) and cellphone (35%), as well as SMS-to-web (45%). The sample was randomly drawn from the Nevada voter list. Interviews were offered in English and Spanish. The margin of sampling error at the 95% confidence level for the 600 statewide sample is ±4.0%; for the 800 total sample of voters 50+ is ±3.5%; for the 400 total sample of Hispanic voters 50+ is ±4.9%.

View the full survey results at aarp.org/NVpolling and find all of our state battleground polls at aarp.org/voterpolls24. Read AARP's coverage of the poll here.

For more information on how, when and where to vote in Nevada, visit aarp.org/NVvotes.

About AARP
AARP is the nation's largest nonprofit, nonpartisan organization dedicated to empowering Americans 50 and older to choose how they live as they age. With a nationwide presence, AARP strengthens communities and advocates for what matters most to the more than 100 million Americans 50-plus and their families: health security, financial stability and personal fulfillment. AARP also works for individuals in the marketplace by sparking new solutions and allowing carefully chosen, high-quality products and services to carry the AARP name. As a trusted source for news and information, AARP produces the nation's largest circulation publications, AARP The Magazine and AARP Bulletin. To learn more, visit www.aarp.org/about-aarp/, www.aarp.org/español or follow @AARP, @AARPenEspañol and @AARPadvocates on social media.

SOURCE AARP