Nationally House Prices Decline 0.8% in December from November and 4.3% since June Peak. Seattle, San Francisco, and San Jose Lead Way, Each with 15% Cumulative Price Declines

WASHINGTON, Jan. 30, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- Nationally, prices have declined 4.3% from the peak in June, according to data from the American Enterprise Institute's (AEI) Housing Center. While all of the 60 largest metros have begun experiencing year-over-year price declines, Seattle, San Francisco, and San Jose have led the way with declines of 15.0%, 14.9%, and 14.7% from their respective peaks (see #1 in graphic).

December's Year-over-Year constant-quality HPA was 5.1%, down from 6.4% a month ago, a YoY peak of 18.2% in March 2022, and 16.9% a year ago. Based on Optimal Blue rate lock data, YoY HPA is projected to decline further to 3% in January and 1% in February.

YoY HPA varied significantly among the 60 largest metros. It ranged from -6.5% and -6.3% in San Francisco and San Jose to 14.8% and 13.0% in Miami and Myrtle Beach (see #2 in graphic).   

Historically, HPA in the low price tier has outpaced HPA in the upper price tiers. This trend continues to persist. Although home prices were down across all four price tiers, the high end and low end of the market were hit differently. In December, the high price tier was down 5.4% from its peak in May 2022, while the low price tier was down 1.9% from its peak in July.

December's months' supply & active listings both increased above seasonal trends, but remain at low levels. Months' supply stood at 4.0 months in December 2022, up from 3.6 months in December 2019, 3.8 months in November 2022, and 1.7 months in April 2022 (see #3 in graphic). The months' supply for the high price tier came in at 9.1 months in December 2022, helping the price weakness for this tier.

The AEI Housing Center provides the most advanced and timely information on home prices available. Measures of home price appreciation like the Case Shiller index have months of lag, meaning the most recent numbers are for September. The Housing Center has published data for December 2022 and is able to accurately project January and February 2023 with Optimal Blue rate lock data as well.

National Home Price Appreciation (HPA) Index – December 2022

High Resolution Graphic

Media Contact Details:

Sissi Li 
American Enterprise Institute Housing Center 
Washington, DC 
https://www.aei.org/centers/housing-center/ 
[email protected]
203-419-5240

SOURCE AMERICAN ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE FOR PUBLIC POLICY RESEARCH