National Month-over-Month (MoM) HPA in February was up 1.2%, indicating the continuing strength of the seller's market

WASHINGTON, March 24, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- Nationally, prices have declined 1.6% from the peak in June, according to data from the American Enterprise Institute's (AEI) Housing Center. The national Month-over-Month (MoM) HPA in February was up 1.2%, the second positive MoM change in a row, reversing the downward trend started in July 2022. While all of the 60 largest metros have begun experiencing year-over-year price declines, San Jose, Seattle, and San Francisco have led the way with declines of 15.3%, 12.8%, and 12.6% from their respective peaks.

February's Year-over-Year constant-quality HPA was 3.4%, down from 4.2% a month ago, a YoY peak of 18.3% in March 2022, and 17.5% a year ago. Based on Optimal Blue rate lock data, YoY HPA is projected to decline further to 2% in March and 1% in April.

YoY HPA varied significantly among the 60 largest metros. It ranged from -13.1% and -9.0% in San Jose and San Francisco to 14.2% and 11.6% in Indianapolis and Kansas City (see #1 in graphic). MoM HPA also varied greatly, ranging from 0.0% in Palm Bay to 5.5% in Nashville (see #2 in graphic).  

Historically, low price tier HPA has outpaced HPAs for upper price tiers. This trend continues in February, with the high price tier down 2.2% from its peak in May 2022, while the low price had increased 1.3% from its previous peak in July 2022.

February's months' supply dropped from its recent peak, signaling the strong seller's market continuing. Months' supply stood at 3.4 months in February 2023, down from 4.5 months in January, even with 3.4 months in February 2020, and up from 1.7 months in April 2022 (see #3 in graphic). The months' supply for the high price tier came in at 8.8 months in February 2023, helping to explain the price weakness for this tier.

The AEI Housing Center provides the most advanced and timely information on home prices available. Measures of home price appreciation like the Case Shiller index have months of lag. The Housing Center has published data for February 2023 and is able to accurately project March and April with Optimal Blue rate lock data as well.

National Home Price Appreciation (HPA) Index – February 2023

Media Contact Details:

Sissi Li
American Enterprise Institute Housing Center
Washington, DC
https://www.aei.org/centers/housing-center/
[email protected]
203-419-5240

SOURCE AMERICAN ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE FOR PUBLIC POLICY RESEARCH