LORD ASHCROFT POLL: BIDEN AND TRUMP TIED AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS; TRUMP LEADS ON MOST KEY ISSUES

News provided by

Feb 19, 2024, 10:43 ET

LONDON, Feb. 19, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- Joe Biden and Donald Trump are tied among registered voters, with Trump ahead on key issues including the economy and the border, according to new U.S. research from Lord Ashcroft Polls. The newly published 10,000 sample survey found:

Among registered voters, Biden and Trump were tied on 40% were the election to be held today. However, 'A Democrat other than Joe Biden' was ahead of Trump by 44% to 38%. Biden was ahead of Nikki Haley by 38% to 27%. 50% of all voters said they would be highly motivated to get out and vote in a Biden-Trump election, compared to 37% in a contest between Biden and Haley.
In the Biden-Trump match-up, Trump led among men (by 7 points), 18-24s (6), 25-34s (8), white voters (10) and Hispanic voters (1). He also led among non-graduates, by between 3 points (some college) and 20 points (those who did not complete high school). Biden led among women (by 8 points), 45-54s (6), those aged 65+ (6), black voters (33, with Trump on 22%), and those with a bachelor's (10) and postgraduate degrees (22).
Trump had a clear lead over Biden on immigration and the border (23 points), defence and national security (13 points), the economy and jobs (12), taxes (11), crime (11) and the cost of living (10). He was marginally ahead on representing America internationally (2), standing up for ordinary Americans (1) and defending constitutional rights (1), and the two were tied when it came to energy security. Biden enjoyed clear leads on climate change and the environment (15) and healthcare (10). On every issue, Trump achieved a higher score than the generic Republican, while Biden achieved an equal or lower score than the generic Democrat.
65% said the US is heading in the wrong direction, 21% that the country is on the right track. 2020 Biden voters said 'wrong direction' by 48% to 37%.
Americans disapproved of President Biden's job performance by 58% to 37%. One quarter (25%) Biden's 2020 voters said they disapproved of his performance as president. Disapproval was higher among 18-24s (64%) than among any other age group. Voters disapproved of Kamala Harris's performance as vice president by 52% to 36%.
Among likely Republican primary voters, Donald Trump led Nikki Haley by 82% to 14%. Among those with graduate degrees she was behind by 43 points (68% to 25%), compared to 55 points among those with bachelor's degrees, 74 points among those with some college and 83 points among high school graduates.
64% said there was probably some truth to the charges against Donald Trump – of which 40% said the charges were not politically motivated and 24% said they would not have been brought against anyone but Trump. 20% (including 44% of 2020 Trump voters) said the charges were politically motivated and there was probably no truth to them.
31% said the events of January 6 2021 and attempts to prevent Biden being declared the winner in 2020 were the bigger threat to democracy in the US; 26% said that legal attempts to prevent Trump appearing on the ballot in some states represented a bigger threat. 24% said both represented a threat to democracy; 8% said neither did so.
More Americans thought the indictments made Trump more likely to win the election (30%) than less likely (26%). Only 39% of 2020 Biden voters thought they made a Biden victory less likely, down from 50% in November 2023.
38% of all voters expected Trump to be sworn in as president in January 2025, while 28% expected a second term for Biden. 76% of 2020 Trump voters expected a Trump victory, compared to 58% of 2020 Biden voters who expected a Biden victory.

Commenting on the findings, Lord Ashcroft said:

"More voters now expect Trump to return to the White House than Biden, two thirds think the country is on the wrong track, and Trump leads on most key issues. The enthusiasm gap between potential Trump and Biden voters is evident in focus groups as well as the poll numbers: many of Biden's own voters seriously doubt he is in any condition to do the job now, let alone to be at it still in four years' time.

"However, there is still time for Biden to regain the initiative. Many who somewhat disapprove of Biden's performance still prefer him to Trump on most issues but currently say they will vote for another candidate or stay at home. Many of these might be persuaded to return to the Biden fold as the election draws closer."

The full report – Biden v. Trump: The Sequel is at the Lord Ashcroft Polls website here.

10,192 adults in the US were interviewed online between 17 and 28 January 2024. Results have been weighted to be representative of all adults in the US. Full data tables are available at LordAshcroftPolls.com.

LORD ASHCROFT KCMG PC is an international businessman, philanthropist, pollster and author. He is a former Deputy Chairman of the UK Conservative Party and honorary Chairman of the International Democracy Union.

LordAshcroftPolls.com // LordAshcroft.com // Twitter/Facebook: @LordAshcroft

Logo - https://mma.prnewswire.com/media/2000968/4549750/Lord_Ashcroft_Logo.jpg

SOURCE Lord Ashcroft Polls