LNG Markets Article: Asian Spot LNG Rally Stalls on Oversupply, Crude Slump

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Oct 21, 2014, 01:08 ET

SINGAPORE, October 21, 2014 /PRNewswire/ --

Asian spot prices fell in the first half of October as the region struggled to absorb abundant supply of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the Pacific basin amid weak demand fundamentals. Falling crude oil prices also weighed on the near curve, as buyers anticipated lower contractual rates later in the winter.

The ICIS November '14 East Asia Index (EAX) was assessed at $13.950/MMBtu on 15 October, having shed $0.775/MMBtu from a high point of $14.725/MMBtu on 29 September. This represented a $0.588/MMBtu loss since the contract rolled to become the front month on 16 September. December EAX was assessed at $14.468/MMBtu on 15 October, having fallen by $0.307/MMBtu since 16 September.

The ICIS EAX is an arithmetic average of the DES (delivered ex-ship) front month and second month ahead assessments for Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and China. The index provides a measure of the commodity's value across the East Asia region and is a reliable LNG reference price for the region as it incorporates a wider pool of demand centres.

As the new contract month began in mid-September, sellers cited the high cost of marginal supply from the Atlantic basin in pushing to extend the rally that began in late July. FOB (free on board) prices remained around $13.000/MMBtu in the Atlantic basin, while opportunities from the usual sources of Nigeria and Trinidad remained limited.

Many of Japan's larger utility buyers remained out of the market because of ample inventories and predictions of mild October weather. South Korea's KOGAS continued its attempts to enter into swap arrangements by offering prompt volumes to the market in return for receiving volumes later in the winter. However, smaller Japanese utilities and a number of Chinese buyers had expressed interest for November deliveries.

On 26 September, the highest bid for delivery in the second half of November was recorded at $14.600/MMBtu into Japan, while the lowest offer for the same delivery period was heard at $15.100/MMBtu.

By late September, the emergence of abundant supply from within the Pacific basin acted to cap any price rises. The North West Shelf (NWS) project in Australia, the ExxonMobil-operated PNG LNG project and Abu Dhabi's ADGAS opened tenders to sell at least four cargoes for November delivery. Indonesia's Bontang LNG export plant also closed a tender for the delivery of up to six cargoes on a prompt basis, while the BP-operated Tangguh project on the Indonesian island of West Papua was heard to be marketing four early winter spot cargoes. These cargoes were released to the market because of a delay to the start-up of the Lampung floating terminal off the coast of southern Sumatra.

Read further breakdowns of LNG trade activities for October, including the impact of crude markets on LNG pricing through this link - http://icis.com/press-releases/oct-eax-lng-article/

About ICIS

ICIS is the world's largest petrochemical market information provider and has fast-growing energy and fertilizer divisions. Our aim is to give companies in global commodities markets a competitive advantage by delivering trusted pricing data, high-value news, analysis and independent consulting, enabling our customers to make better-informed trading and planning decisions. We have more than 30 years' experience in providing pricing information, news, analysis and consulting to buyers, sellers and analysts.

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For further information about this release, please contact:

Aileen Wang
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SOURCE ICIS