LIU Hornstein Center Poll Shows Americans Split on Kavanaugh; Plurality Support for Confirmation, Waiting Until After Elections

With High Undecided, Poll Shows Opportunities for Both Sides to Shape Public Opinion

News provided by

Jul 26, 2018, 13:09 ET

BROOKVILLE, N.Y., July 26, 2018 /PRNewswire/ -- A new Long Island University Hornstein Center for Policy, Polling and Analysis poll found that Americans are split on President Trump's nomination of Judge Brett Kavanaugh to replace Justice Anthony Kennedy on the United States Supreme Court with many respondents not expressing an opinion.

The LIU Hornstein poll showed that a plurality of Americans (38 percent) believe that Judge Kavanaugh is qualified versus 29 percent who disagree. A similar plurality (40 percent) believe that if hearings find him qualified, that he should be confirmed, even if those hearings were to occur before the November election. On both questions, nearly 1/3 of respondents were either unsure or expressed no opinion.

"A plurality is not a majority, and in a deeply polarized nation, the high number of undecideds demonstrates an opportunity for either side to shape this debate," said LIU Political Science Professor Stanley B. Klein, Director of the LIU Hornstein Center. "In general, Americans support giving this process more time to learn about Judge Kavanaugh's views and qualifications."

The LIU Hornstein poll showed that a plurality of Americans (40 percent) believe that Kavanaugh's nomination should wait until the new Congress meets in January, 2019, while 31 percent believe it should happen sooner. A similar plurality (36 percent) believe that Justice Kennedy should have delayed his retirement until after the November election, while 28 percent did not believe he should have waited.

One reason Americans may want to take time with this process is that Justice Anthony Kennedy was well known as a swing vote, while the 53-year-old Kavanaugh who currently sits on the United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia, has a more pronounced conservative judicial record

The poll showed Americans deeply split in their overall view of the Supreme Court. A plurality of Americans expressed no opinion or were unsure, while just 35 percent approve of the Court's current job performance versus 29 percent disapproval.

The findings are based on a published public opinion poll conducted from July 15-18, 2018, of 1007 Americans with a margin of error of +/- 3 percent.

Long Island University
Steven S. Hornstein Center for Policy, Polling, and Analysis
Supreme Court Survey
July 15-18, 2018

Q1. Do you approve of the job performance of the Supreme Court of the United States?
Answer Choices	Responses
Yes;	34.52%	348
No;	28.97%	292
Unsure;	27.38%	276
No Opinion;	9.13%	92

Q2. When should consideration of Judge Brett Kavanaugh, President Trump's nominee to succeed retiring Associate Justice Anthony M. Kennedy, take place?
Answer Choices	Responses
As soon as the nomination is made;	30.85%	311
After the new session of Congress begins in January 2019;	39.98%	403
Unsure;	18.06%	182
No Opinion;	11.11%	112

Q3. Judge Kavanaugh is qualified for a seat on the Supreme Court.
Answer Choices	Responses
Strongly Agree;	19.15%	193
Moderately Agree;	18.35%	185
Moderately Disagree;	11.61%	117
Strongly Disagree;	17.06%	172
Unsure;	21.63%	218
No Opinion;	12.20%	123

Q4. Were the Senate to consider Judge Kavanaugh before the next session of Congress and the hearing determined that he is qualified, should the Senate vote to confirm?
Answer Choices	Responses
Yes;	39.88%	402
No;	29.37%	296
Unsure;	19.64%	198
No Opinion;	11.11%	112

Q5. With which political party do you primarily identify?
Answer Choices	Responses
I primarily identify as an Independent;	17.66%	178
I primarily identify as a Democrat;	27.78%	280
I primarily identify as a Republican;	21.43%	216
I primarily identify with another political party;	4.37%	44
I do not primarily identify with one political party;	16.87%	170
Unsure;	4.76%	48
No Opinion;	7.14%	72

Q6. Should Justice Kennedy have delayed his retirement until after the election?
Answer Choices	Responses
Yes;	35.62%	359
No;	27.88%	281
Unsure;	21.23%	214
No Opinion;	15.28%	154

Q7. Age
Answer Choices	Responses
18-29	29.69%	299
30-44	19.46%	196
45-60	21.35%	215
> 60	29.49%	297

Q8. Gender
Answer Choices	Responses
Male	47.17%	475
Female	52.83%	532

Polling Methodology
This Long Island University Steven S. Hornstein Center for Policy, Polling & Analysis poll was conducted through Surveymonkey July 15-18, 2018 in English to 1007 Americans over the age of 18. Polling data was sorted by age, gender & geographic location in efforts to ensure a nationwide representative sample. This poll has an overall margin of error of +/- 3 points.

The Steven S. Hornstein Center for Policy, Polling, and Analysis at LIU conducts independent, fair, and balanced polling, empirical research, and analysis on a wide range of public issues including lifestyle preferences. The Center's goals include informing the community, public and policy makers about critical issues.

SOURCE Long Island University